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These picks are meant to be long shots. Bets for the everyday bettor that likes a little action with little risk, but big payoff when it hits. For example, let's say 1 unit = $5, and you bet 1u on each of our 3 bets every week for the remaining 30 events on the PGA Tour golf season, that's $450 for the season. If you hit 1 bet at 90/1 or better, you break even. 1 out of 90 possible bets at 90/1 and you break even. Obviously, our hope is that we hit more than 1 this season, but that's an example of why we're looking at long shots and likely 1u bets.
Weather & Tee Time Wave Thoughts
We get all of our weather data from weather.gov. We always factor temperature in our FRL bets since the ball doesn't fly as far in colder conditions. And of course, we always factor rain and wind in FRL.
As of Wednesday morning, it appears it's gonna be Texas hot all week with little to no rain. There does appear to be a slight advantage to the PM/AM wave in terms of wind with gusts getting up over 20mph late in the afternoon on Friday. It's not drastic enough for a complete fade of the opposite wave, but it's an edge if you're in a tiebreaker decision. In terms of FRL bets, we actually favor the AM guys on Thursday a little more. The reasons would be slightly lower winds first thing in the morning, and the greens won't be as firm as they will in the afternoon. We know these greens are the primary defense of Trinity Forest with undulation and levels giving players fits. We'd prefer our FRL bets to face those surfaces before they firm up too much.
First Round Leader
Joel Dahmen (120/1) / 1:50pm Tee Time
Joel is a guy that typically comes out the gates hot and actually ranks 4th in the field in first round scoring average. As we discussed on the pod, one of the keys to scoring this week will be hitting fairways in the right spots to give you proper angles to attack the pins on the undulating greens at Trinity Forest. Dahmen is very accurate off the tee which isn’t a huge deal on these wide fairways, but he ranks in the top 25 in the field in Proximity to the pin and his accuracy off the tee should help put the ball in spots he needs to in order go at these pins and drop some birdies.
Talor Gooch (100/1) / 8:00am Tee Time
The Gooch is loose! Talor is a sneaky play we like this week as a cheap play in our DFS lineups arriving at the Byron Nelson in good recent form with a top 15 finish at the Wells Fargo and also checks in as a Great Fantastic potential FRL play. Gooch ranks in the Top 20 in the field in SG: Approach and also checks the box for us in Proximity. Taking a look at his first round scoring average, Talor is 36th this season in first round scoring average which puts him 12th in the field and a good bet to get off to a great start and lead the field after the first round.
James Hahn (AM/PM) / Aaron Baddeley (PM/AM) / Sam Saunders (AM/PM) - All 100/1
Hahn & Badds offer you former proven winners on the PGA Tour in years past who've flashed form at points this season. Hahn's last made cut happened to be at the Shell in Texas and he tends to play better the closer he gets to the Left Coast. His stats are total garbage over the last 12 rounds, but we know when he's on, he's capable of great iron play.
Baddeley...Crikey Mate! It’s another wind lovin, dirt lovin, flat piece of earth lovin Aussie! Badds has been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour over the last decade, and that should serve him well on these large, undulating greens at Trinity Forest. Plus, he’s top 25 in the field over the last 12 rounds in SG: APP and SG: ATG. The putter’s actually been a touch cold recently, but when Badds gets it rolling, watch out.
Sam Saunders is the only guy in this group without a win on the PGA Tour, but he's come close this season at CareerBuilder and the Wells Fargo with Top 10 finishes in much tougher fields. Sam is 16th in this field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds. If he gets the putter as hot as it was at the Wells Fargo, then he could take down his first victory.