You guys and gals probably know by now that I love some long shots for FRL bets on the PGA Tour. Anyone can have a hot day on the golf course and go low. We see it all the time. Plus, the books don’t price in advantages like tee time draw, weather, course conditions in the morning versus the afternoon, or temperature and how it affects the ball as much they probably should. I’m not saying that bookmakers don’t consider those factors at all, but I believe they don’t put as much into making the lines as they do outright options or bets over the course of 4 rounds of competition.
Therefore, I like chasing the long shot guys on Thursdays. It’s a great opening day PGA Tour sweat. Plus, if you hit, you’ve got house money to play with for the rest of the tournament.
Torrey Pines is the host site for the Farmers Insurance Open this week on the PGA Tour. We are Farmers…dum dum dum dum dum dum dum! The weather on Thursday looks perfect as it should be in Cali with 0% chance of rain, temps in the 60s, and very little wind throughout the entire day. Plus, with players going off on 2 different courses, there really isn’t much of a difference in time and conditions from the first guy off in the morning, to the last guy off.
The big deal this week is the course the guys are starting on for round 1. All first round leader bets MUST come from guys going off on the North Course. The North Course is considerably easier than the South year after year. I won’t bore you with the data, but just trust me. It’s a big difference. The North Course also had it’s greens redone back in 2016 and they’re predominantly bentgrass, rather than POA (which you find on the South Course). Bentgrass is infinitely easier to read, predict, and putt on than POA. POA gets bumpy and unpredictable.
Now that we’ve eliminated the guys going off on the South Course, let me tell you 3 guys I like the most for first round leader bets that are playing on the North Course and eat birdies for breakfast!
All of these numbers and bets can be found over on MyBookie.ag. Use promo code “tourjunkies” for a 50% deposit bonus when you deposit at least $50 to start. We honestly trust the team over at MyBookie. They’ve taken great care of us and our listeners over the last 2 years. Get in there and support the Tour Junkies!
Beau “Tour Visor” Hossler (80/1) - Hossler missed the cut last week at the Desert Classic in his first event of 2019 on the PGA Tour, but that’s not unusual as a lot of guys are shaking the rust off with their first event. However, it was the flat stick that let him down as he lost nearly 2 strokes over the 3 rounds on the greens. But, he gained almost 4 strokes off the tee and with approach shots. The ball striking was there! He’s typically known as a great putter, so I expect that to turn around. He’s also rather familiar with Torrey Pines as he played there as a teenager for the Junior World event where he won and had a runner up finish. He’s on record as saying he loves Torrey and feels rather comfortable here. 80/1 is criminal!
Harold Varner III (100/1) - This will be HV3’s fourth attempt at Torrey Pines, and he doesn’t have much of a record, but he’s familiar, and he’s aggressive. Considering his ability to bomb it, score in bunches, and recent form after the T18 finish last week…we’d say 100/1 is a lovely number to pounce on. He’s 17th in this field in DraftKings points scored over the last 50 rounds, which means he can score birdies and eagles. After 3 less than stellar tries at Torrey, we’d bet he knows he’s got to come out firing on the North Course to start 2019.
Jhonattan Vegas (100/1) - Unlike HV3, Jhonny V has had solid success here at Torrey as he’s gained 20 strokes over the last 5 years. He’s always been one of the longer hitters on the PGA Tour, and that’s essential this week. His first event of 2019 was last week at the Desert Classic where he finished T69. However, he gained strokes off the tee, and chipped his balls off! Getting up and down is also a big deal this week since these small greens are missed often. The irons were the only thing in his game that showed any sign of rust. Time to go low on the North Course Jhonny!
Happy Betting Golf Addicts!