Welcome back to week 5 of our season long PGA Tour golf betting project! This week as always we’ll do our 3 ‘system’ picks as well as our 3 discretionary picks. Course history (cc:Pat) has taken a decent lead on the other two systems, and all three members of team TJ are now officially in the black on our discretionary picks!
I’m going to re-post the project outline every week because I expect to add lots of new readers as the season goes along. If you read last week, go ahead and scroll down to this week’s bets. Under each section we’ve also added the graphs that will track the results throughout the season, leh go!
Wrong, correct, or maybe somewhere in-between…the eternal debate in DFS and DraftKings golf rages on between which of the three pillars is in fact the most predictive/has the most value: Recent Form, Course History, or Course Fit. Well why don't we try and settle this debate once and for all with a season long golf betting system and contest?
We take 3 head to head bets on MyBookie every week with predetermined settings for recent form, course history, and course fit. Recent Form and course history will obviously stay the same for the duration, and we'll adjust the course fit criteria to the top 5 back-tested metrics every week. Is it perfect? No, but I think at the bare minimum we can at least see which of the 3 has the most betting value over the course of the season, and we'll track the results all the way thru the FedEx Cup. To add another fun component to it, David, Pat, and myself will all take 1 discretionary head to head bet each week to not only see who's the champ at the end of the year (we’ll announce the stakes on next weeks pod), but also to see if we can beat all 3 of the other systems.
The inputs behind these three setups are below, keep in mind that I want it to be as systematic as possible in order to keep as much human discretion as possible out of the results. I would love to use strokes gained data for this experiment, but unfortunately there’s still just to many gaps in the data to be consistent enough over the course of the season. (we can only get strokes gained data from 1 of 4 majors every year, no OHL, CJ Cup, CIMB, WGC HSBC, all the alternate field events, Web.com events, Champions tour, etc). Other rules:
if a player has multiple head to head match ups, we’ll always take the better odds match up. So for example if in one of the players match ups they are -150 and in the other they are -125, we’ll take the -125 bet. Or if they are +110 in one and +125 in another, we will take the +125 line.
if the same player fits multiple bets for that week, so be it
if there is any late change/WD/or no line, we’ll take the second highest ranked player for that system
we assume a flat $100 wager on every bet
Recent Form: 66% Scoring Average the last 6 calendar weeks 34% GIR
Jon Rahm is the recent form champ for the field this week
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 1-3 (Amazingly this has been decided by 1 stroke every week so far, but Chez gets the 1st win for team recent form)
Course History: 66% course scoring average 34% # of rounds played, only going back the last 5 years
Dustin Johnson is the course horse of the week, w/ incredible history
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 3-1
Course fit: 20% of each of the top 5 back-tested metrics. For the Genesis Open: 1. Course Average Round 2. Par 5 scoring 3. Birdie or better 4. Driving distance 5. GIR %
Dustin Johnson is once again our #1 course fit guy in an ongoing trend of the ‘best’ player in the field being the ‘best’ course fit.
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 2-1-1 (it was a push last week)
The Discretionary Picks: Thats right, all ya boys are in back in the black after some pretty awesome picks last week. David nailed the winner, and Daddy (I’m Daddy) picked the runner-up last week.
David: Cam Smith over Fleetwood
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 2-2
Pat: Sergio over Oosty
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 2-2
Ben: CH3 over Rafa
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 2-1-1