Welcome back to week 3 of our season long PGA Tour golf betting project! I’m going to re-post the project outline every week because I expect to add lots of new readers as the season goes along. If you read last week, go ahead and scroll down to this week’s bets. Under each section we’ve also added the graphs that will track the results throughout the season, leh go!
Wrong, correct, or maybe somewhere in-between…the eternal debate in DFS and DraftKings golf rages on between which of the three pillars is in fact the most predictive/has the most value: Recent Form, Course History, or Course Fit. Well why don't we try and settle this debate once and for all with a season long golf betting system and contest?
We take 3 head to head bets on MyBookie every week with predetermined settings for recent form, course history, and course fit. Recent Form and course history will obviously stay the same for the duration, and we'll adjust the course fit criteria to the top 5 back-tested metrics every week. Is it perfect? No, but I think at the bare minimum we can at least see which of the 3 has the most betting value over the course of the season, and we'll track the results all the way thru the FedEx Cup. To add another fun component to it, David, Pat, and myself will all take 1 discretionary head to head bet each week to not only see who's the champ at the end of the year (we’ll announce the stakes on next weeks pod), but also to see if we can beat all 3 of the other systems.
The inputs behind these three setups are below, keep in mind that I want it to be as systematic as possible in order to keep as much human discretion as possible out of the results. I would love to use strokes gained data for this experiment, but unfortunately there’s still just to many gaps in the data to be consistent enough over the course of the season. (we can only get strokes gained data from 1 of 4 majors every year, no OHL, CJ Cup, CIMB, WGC HSBC, all the alternate field events, Web.com events, Champions tour, etc). Other rules:
if a player has multiple head to head match ups, we’ll always take the better odds match up. So for example if in one of the players match ups they are -150 and in the other they are -125, we’ll take the -125 bet. Or if they are +110 in one and +125 in another, we will take the +125 line.
if the same player fits multiple bets for that week, so be it
if there is any late change/WD/or no line, we’ll take the second highest ranked player for that system
we assume a flat $100 wager on every bet
Recent Form: 66% Scoring Average the last 6 calendar weeks 34% GIR
Xander Schauffele is the recent form champ for the field this week
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 0-2 (Chez lost by 1 stroke to Ancer last week)
Course History: 66% course scoring average 34% # of rounds played, only going back the last 5 years
Charles Howell III is the course horse of the week according to the data (just edged out Finau)
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record:1-1
Course fit: 20% of each of the top 5 back-tested metrics. For the Farmers Insurance: 1. Par 3 scoring 2. Driving Distance 3. Scrambling 4. Birdie or Better 5. GIR
Justin Rose is our #1 course fit guy for the 2nd straight week, edges out Rory by a hair
Golf Betting Win/Loss Record: 1-1
The Discretionary Picks: Pat is already on a heater to start the season. Despite Dufner finishing 6 spots from DFL, PTP moves to 2-0 thanks to a Pat Perez WD in round 3.
David: Champ over Reed
Golf Betting Win/Lose Record: 1-1
Pat: Im over List
Golf Betting Win/Lose Record: 2-0
Ben: Cam Smith over Woodland
Golf Betting Win/Lose Record: 1-1