Zozo Championship 2020 Betting Card
Betting the Zozo Championship
We get another new course this week in Sherwood Country Club as the PGA TOUR heads to Los Angeles, CA for the Zozo Championship. I guess Sherwood is completely new to the rotation as it hosted Tiger's Hero World Challenge from 2000 to 2013, but Tiger himself said this place is much different now.
Sherwood is a Jack Nicklaus design Par 72 playing at just over 7,000 yards. It's a country club track built for wealthy members in the LA area. The greens are pure bent grass (no POA!), and Tiger mentioned earlier this week that they're flatter and bigger than they used to be. This is not a tough track by any means. We do know that Nicklaus tracks tend to reward good iron play.
The single biggest factor to consider when determining how Sherwood will play is the fact that there are five par 5s and a driveable par 4 for most of the field. The par 5s are all very gettable, even for the shorter hitters. I expect the winning score to be -20 to -25.
My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Pay Attention!
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Zozo 2020 Picks
Shout out to Pat for nailing Kokrak at 80/1 outright last week in his "Not that Anybody Really Cares Betting Card" (posted every Wednesday on our Twitter feed). I whiffed on my card last week, but the Tour Junkies collectively are on FIYA since the new season started 6 weeks ago. Long Shot SZN â„¢ Biyatches! My card is up 15 units since the new season. Let's get to the picks.
No first round leader bets for me this week again given the short field and lack of weather advantage. I'm focusing on outrights only and I'm going extra BIG this week with my balls. Sure, there are some big names here, but that hasn't mattered lately. I'm thinking that the bombers and short knockers alike can win at Sherwood. It's all going to come down to making a ton of birdies with the flatstick. So, if you're a shorter hitter that still does well on P5 scoring, you're in form coming in, and you're decent on bentgrass...then sign me up!
Did you know Ancer has 5 top 4 finishes in the past 13 months? Me neither, but he does. He doesn't do one thing supremely well, but he does everything pretty good. Putts well on bent grass and very rarely gets himself in trouble tee to green.
Phil is the wild card on the...card...awkward. Hear me out though...it's California (Phil loves Cali). It's not a difficult course off the tee according to a source we have at Sherwood. And just today at his press conference (fresh off his Champions Tour win this past weekend), he said his game is in great shape and his PUTTING is as good as it's been in a long time. Daddy likes.
Munoz has three top 10s in his last 6 events including a t9 last week where he actually gained 1.4 strokes on those bent grass greens at the CJ Cup. He's a long hitter and he's top 30 in this field in par 5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.
Harman is one of my favorite plays this week. Fun fact: we interviewed Brendan Todd once and he told us about how Harman got the nickname, "Cockbite", during a road trip playing college golf at UGA. Anyway, Cockbite certainly does score on par 5s quite well for a little fella. He's actually 6th in the field over the last 24 rounds in that category. He's in great form and he's one of the best putters in the field...at 100/1!
Todd is like Harman, but taller. He's probably the best putter in the field and he too scores well on par 5s (21st in the field over the last 24 rounds) for a short knocker off the tee. Don't forget he's won 2 PGA TOUR events in the last 12 months.
Hadwin is my favorite puttin ass Canadian that also scores well on par 5s despite being a shorter hitter. The form isn't great, but if this turns into a putting contest...watch out. I like the value at 125/1
Gooch turned it loose last week at the CJ Cup nearly getting his first victory on the way to a 5th place finish. He was positive in every strokes gained category, and gained an impressive 4 strokes putting on those bent grass greens. He's the 2nd best par 5 scorer in this field over the last 24 rounds. Love the value!
Finally, Mackenzie Hughes gets back on the card after shitting down his leg last week. He was absolutely awful tee to green at Shadow Creek and he lost strokes putting for the first time since January. He's a long hitter that can thrive on a course where you can be a little wild. The bad putting week is an anomaly for him, and over the last 24 rounds, he's 8th in par 5 scoring. His MO is to putt solid at every event and then all of a sudden have a killer ball striking week. Prior to his near win at the Honda, he lost nearly 3 strokes tee to green the week before. Prior to his T3 at the Travelers, he lost over 6 strokes tee to green at the Heritage. And prior to his near win at Corales a couple of weeks back (when he lost to my 150/1 Hudson Swafford pick), he lost over 2 strokes tee to green at the US Open.
Outright Winner
Ancer at 55/1 on DK Sportsbook $8
Mickelson at 70/1 on DK Sportsbook $7
Munoz at 90/1 on DK Sportsbook $8
Harman at 100/1 on DK Sportsbook $7
Todd at 100/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Hadwin at 125/1 on PointsBet $5
Gooch at 135/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Hughes at 175/1 on DK Sportsbook $5