Outright Bets for The Wyndham Championship 2023
The Betting Approach for The Wyndham Championship 2023
Well, the PGA TOUR's regular season comes to a close in Greensboro, North Carolina at Sedgefield Country Club for The Wyndham Championship. I could not be any happier for this wretched season to finally come to an end. I'm in need of hitting 2 consecutive outright winners in the next 3 weeks to finish in the black for the season.
Sedgefield Country Club is a course we're all quite familiar with. Given what we know of Sedgefield and the conditions, being in the Fairway will be critical. From there, it's about hitting short and mid irons close and converting your putting opportunities. The good news is this tournament typically produces mid to long shot winners with only two winners shorter than 30/1 since 2010.
As always, we'll be watching the weather forecast and working through it in tonight's live DISCORD chat. For now, the prudent play is probably to hold on to your units and look for live betting opportunities as the weather could turn this tournament into a total s*** show. But...you're likely not coming to our website for prudent plays.
Vegas has the winning score over/under projected at -20.5. The winning score has hit -20 every year since 2016 with the exception of Kisner's win in 2021. Given the likely rain and soft greens, I will take the over on that winning score projection. With the exception of Stenson and Garcia, you could argue that every winner since 2010 was an above average putter.
I see this turning into a putting contest. Hit the Fairway. Hit your short irons close. Convert. Do that for 4 days. Battle the rain, the delays, the starts and the stops, and emerge victorious.
More Intel on the Sedgefield Country Club
You're probably tired of hearing how Sedgefield Country Club will play at this point. However, if you'd like a breakdown of the course, key stats and trends, then check out this write up from our very own, Nate Moore.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Wyndham Championship 2023
Down 35 units on the season after also not having Brian Harman. Luckily I was on vacation for the 3M...I would for sure NOT have seen a 7 shot Hodges win coming. Spending 5 units to win between 27 and 32 if by some miracle, we hit a winner.
I decided to pound the middle this week with only one play in triple digits in Brendan Todd. Lowry, McCarthy, Smalley, Horschel, and Todd were all discussed at length in my 1st Look Betting Preview on Monday morning with the DISCORD. We grabbed them all at great numbers. McCarthy, Smalley, and Todd have all steamed much shorter, so we've got some closing line value.
Harris English may come as a surprise to some. But, the more I looked at him this week, the more I could just see him winning with a spike putting week. His iron play has been hit or miss since returning from injury. That would be the chief concern for English pulling out a win. But we know he hits fairways, and he's one of the best putters on the PGA TOUR. English is always comfy on bermuda grass, and he's gained strokes putting at The Wyndham Championship six out of eight years.
The Alex Noren selection surprises even me. I've had moments where i've played Noren in the past, but it's never worked out. We're all starting to see the form turn around, and it's always felt like Noren was a guy who could get it done on the PGA TOUR.
I don't love his lack of experience at this event. But the recent iron play coupled with his exceptional short game can't be ignored. He honestly feels like one of those "Pat Perry gut/weird plays of the week." So what the hell.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
