The Rundown: 2023 Wells Fargo Championship
It may not be the strongest ‘designated’ field, but boy are we glad to be back among the big names this week in Charlotte. Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm aren’t here, but the rest of the top 10 and 40 of the top 50 players in the world are in the field at Quail Hollow Club this week.
The course and its infamous ‘Green Mile’ are back in the spotlight for the first time since last year’s Presidents Cup, so let’s get into what you need to know to make some bank at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship.
course notes & quotes
The Wells Fargo Championship is back at Quail Hollow for the 20th edition after taking a year off as the host site of the 2022 Presidents Cup. Although last year’s data might not be worth much, there's still plenty of intel on this layout thanks to its rich tradition as one of the best TOUR stops each year.
One of the longest and most difficult stops on TOUR, Quail Hollow is a 7,538-yd beast of a par-71 with larger-than-average bermuda greens. The par-4s are long for the most part, with four tipping out at over 490 yds, but Nos. 8 & 14 are drivable for the bombers and could present a few eagle opportunities. The par-3s are some of the longest these players will see all year, especially No. 6, which can play as long as 250 yds.
But the calling card of Quail Hollow is the infamous ‘Green Mile’. Named after a prison term for the final walk to the execution chamber made by death row inmates, the final three holes at Quail Hollow have been the toughest closing stretch on TOUR (non-majors) since 2003, averaging almost a full-stroke over par. The 190-yd par 3 17th is sandwiched between two near 500-yd par 4s with water danger lurking on almost every shot.
“With how hard it's playing, you've just got to hit greens,” Viktor Hovland said during his first trip to Quail Hollow back in ‘21.” There are so many hole locations where you're just not looking at the pin. Maybe on a couple of holes, you can get it close, and the par 5s maybe you can make some birdies. The rest of the place you're just trying to hold on for dear life.”
Low scores are hard to come by at Quail Hollow, and this former major championship layout will test every club in the bag. Like most courses on TOUR, length off the tee is certainly an advantage around here. But the winner this week will have to be sharp on and around these tricky bermuda greens as well.
Fight for Survival
“The par 5s maybe you can make some birdies. The rest of the place you're just trying to hold on for dear life.”
— Viktor Hovland on Quail Hollow
Course history
Unlike last week at Vidanta Vallarta, there’s no shortage of course history at Quail Hollow to learn from, even if we have to look back a few years due to schedule adjustments in recent seasons. With that said, here are a few important things to note from past editions of the Wells Fargo.
Ball-Striking Test
The last time this event was held here, half of the top 10 on the leaderboard finished the week inside the top 15 in driving distance, and all of the top five finishers were near the top of the field in SG: T2G. Elite ball striking is a requirement on setups like this, and that has been the case here going back several years. Of the 34 players to finish T10 or better in the last three TOUR events held at Quail Hollow, 21 of them were top 15 in the field SG: T2G.
Putting Problems
The greens at Quail Hollow are bigger than average because, well, this course would be almost impossible otherwise. But for those who fail to tuck it in close on approach, the work is just getting started. According to Data Golf, Quail Hollow is the 14th-most difficult course on TOUR in SG: Putting from 5-15 feet, and 7th for putts outside 15 feet. Look for some of the better lag putters to have a strong showing on the greens this week.
(Mostly) Big Name ‘Boards
Similar to most events on difficult setups, the Wells Fargo typically sees the bigger names rise to the top at Quail Hollow. But there’s been a fair share of underdogs on the first page of the leaderboards too. Yes, Rory McIlroy has more wins at Quail Hollow than finishes outside the top 20, and yes, established stars like Max Homa, Jason Day and Justin Rose are fixtures near the top of the board. But each of the last three TOUR events at Quail Hollow featured five top-10 finishers who entered the tournament with outright odds of 80-1 or higher. So don’t disregard those T10/T20 bomb plays just yet.
Betting picks & plays
I'll be steering clear of McIlroy's short number here, but our guy Vince "Money" Margiotta might just have a cross-sport parlay featuring ole' Rors later this week in his Let's Go Juicin' column. And as always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog throughout the week for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang. We had a couple of winners in the column last week, so let's see if we can do even better at the Wells Fargo.
Viktor Hovland (+2000, T10: +225)
He may not have the ideal course history sample size, but Viktor Hovland got his money’s worth from his first trip to Quail Hollow back in 2021. He flashed his typical world-class ball striking, finishing top 7 in SG: OTT and T2G on his way to a T3 finish, just two strokes behind the winner McIlroy. He’s got the answer to Quail Hollow’s questions from tee to green, and he’s gained strokes putting in three of his last five starts on tough layouts at the Masters, the Players and the API. If he can keep the short game and putter even lukewarm, the rest of his game will keep him in contention.
Cameron Young (+2200, T10: +250)
Much like V Hov, Cam Young has just one prior appearance at Quail Hollow, (a less-than-stellar showing in last fall’s Presidents Cup) but his numbers jump off the page too much not to at least give him a look this week. He’s one of just six players on TOUR this season inside the top 20 in SG: OTT, APP and T2G. His lack of experience on the greens could give him trouble this week, but it’s worth noting he has gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts.
Jason Day (+2500, T10: +275)
The Aussie’s resurgence has made him a popular pick so far this season and for good reason. His T39 at the Masters was his first finish outside the top 20 on TOUR in 2023. He’s been on a tear, even if it hasn’t led him to the winner’s circle just yet. But Day has been there at Quail Hollow, winning the 2018 Wells Fargo, and he’s second only to Rory in total strokes gained at this course since 2017.
Keith Mitchell (+5500, T10: +550, T20: +240)
I had to throw in a bomb to make it interesting, but Keith Mitchell’s track record here makes him look like an obvious play. He has two top-10s in three tries here and has never finished worse than 34th. He also ranks 6th in total strokes gained at Quail Hollow since the 2017 Wells Fargo despite skipping the event that year. His recent form looks solid as well with only two missed cuts in 11 events this year including top-5s at Pebble Beach and Riviera.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.