Outright Bets for The Wells Fargo Championship 2023
The Betting Approach for The Wells Fargo Championship 2023
Our boy Akshay gave it a run at The Mexico Open, but ultimately another favorite takes it down with Finau outlasting Rahmbo. Sigh...another week...another favorite busting the possibility a Big Balls bet getting through.
Oh and great news...another ELEVATED event with a stacked 150+ man field. Good news though -- Rahm and Scheffler have decided to take a break before the PGA Championship in a couple of weeks. That leaves Rory Mcllroy headlining this year's Wells Fargo Championship from Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, NC.
Pat and I will be there Tuesday through Thursday as credentialed media, and we'll be sure to pass on all our intel to the Nut Hut DISCORD.
Rory was your winner at Quail Hollow the last time the Wells Fargo was contested in here in 2021 (he also won in 2015). Last year, the event was moved to TPC Potomac as Quail was setting up to host The President's Cup. The last 3 years Quail Hollow has hosted this event, your winning score has been -10, -15, & -12 with Rory, Homa, and Day hoisting the trophy.
I'm anticipating similar scores this year as Quail Hollow is a long, difficult track likely to be made even tougher with cooler temperatures projected this week. However, you've got possibly the strongest field ever here this week, with the exception of the 2017 PGA Championship played here leading to a Justin Thomas victory.
We don't see a threat of rain as of Monday morning, and most of the wind dissipates after Wednesday night (as of now). I think we can fire on some early week outrights now given the forecast and value on the board. However, I do think holding on to a few bets for Wednesday makes sense so you can get our report from the course and see if the weather changes.
More Intel on Quail Hollow
We've grown quite familiar with Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, NC. However, if you'd like more insight on how the course has played in the past, key stats, and things to know, then check out "The Rundown" by Nate Moore.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Wells Fargo Championship 2023
I'm now up 10 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
If you were watching the 1st Look show on Monday, you know Cam Young was one of the first names I said we needed to hit as his odds were certainly going to shorten. I'm glad I hit it when I did. I would still take him at 20/1 if that's all you can get though.
I wasn't biting on Fowler first thing this morning, but I just can't help myself at this point. His iron play has been tremendous and he's obviously so comfortable at Quail Hollow. It would shock me to see his first breakout of the slump win come at an elevated event...but...if it did, it would be here and it would be sans Scheffler and Rahm.
Fleetwood, Bradley and Woodland make up the group of "old" guys that are just stripe shows tee to green, but can't putt. I hate Woodland, but at 90/1...at least if he does have a spike putting week, I trust him to actually close the door late on a Sunday.
Moore, Davis, Buckley and Hardy make up the young studly stripe show category, and all with some solid form to boot. Davis and Buckley also feel the most likely to be +4 through 2 on Thursday, but their spike weeks are very nice. We know Nick Hardy loves tough courses, and has to play with more freedom thanks to his team win at The Zurich.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
