Betting Outrights for The Valspar Championship 2022
The Betting Approach for The Valspar Championship 2022
I'm getting the itch to hit the 4th long shot outright of the PGA TOUR season as they head to Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead course for the Valspar Championship. A good bit of strength has remained this week as fewer players WD'd after the lengthy PLAYERS Championship, so it should be a fun tournament to watch. Let's get into breaking down this tournament in hopes of betting the proper outright.
The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -13.5. I may be leaning on the under for this total as the wind is projected to start picking up on Friday ahead of a rather gusty, Florida weekend. Copperhead already has plenty of bite (see what I did there) as it's the 4th most difficult course on the regular PGA TOUR rotation since 2015 (excluding majors).
More Intel on Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Copperhead will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Valspar Championship 2022
An Irishman, a Scotsman, a Swede and a guy that may as well be a Euro in terms of his golf experience walk into a betting card...
So, the weather this week is setting up to look rather windy for those trying to step on the head of Copperhead, and I want in form ball striking grinders all over the card. The weekend specifically is set up to be windy and will likely firm up the already difficult greens.
I went with in form ball strikers excelling on approach play, but having great touch around the greens as Copperhead's GIR% is already rather low year after year.
I'm up 12 units on the season strictly betting long shot outrights on the PGA TOUR through 19 events. I'm shooting to win about 40 units on this card as I take the mid range to pound town.
You'll notice that everyone on the card made the cut and had a decent showing at TPC Sawgrass last week, with the exception of David Lipsky (DNP).
I decided to roll out Shane Lowry at the top given his superior run of form lately, and his overall course fit. He's got 1 start at the Valspar and it wasn't great, but the form and fit is too good to overcome.
I knew I wanted to hammer this 70-80 range this week as I see a ton of value in these names, and we've seen Valspar winner from this range and longer 2 out of the last 5 years. I mentioned on the podcast that I've just got this feeling about HV3 and the first PGA TOUR win coming. It just seems like he's overdue, he's got the worldwide wins under his belt, and now that home life is just optimal for our guy. Guys like him never get it done late on a Sunday...until they do.
2x PGA TOUR winner, Patton Kizzire, is just finding ways to get the ball in the hole. It's tough to argue with his form, despite what I saw of him up close and personal during last week's Wednesday practice round looking rather sus.
Finally, David Lipsky, Lipsky is American but really cut his teeth on the DP World Tour and Asian Tour through the years until graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last year to gain full status in the big leagues. But the dude is a winner. He's a grinder. He's got chops in tough tournaments and tough conditions. In fact, he won once last year on the KFT, he's won once on the Asian Tour, and twice on the DP World Tour. He's been a winner at every level. He even finished T8 at last year's Palmetto Championship on a tough track in Congaree. He's worth some change at 240/1 I believe.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!