Betting Long Shots for the Valspar Championship 2021
The Betting Approach for the Valspar Championship 2021
Welcome to the Snake Pit itches! The Valspar Championship 2021 takes place for the first time since 2019 as a pretty decent field heads to Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead). Typically known as one of the toughest tracks regularly on the TOUR...the only thing scarier to me than snakes would be Si Woo Kim losing his PGA TOUR card.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Copperhead will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
The winning score totals across most sportsbooks right now have -10.5 winning on this Par 71 layout. The boys teeing off late on Thursday and early on Friday may have a slight wind advantage, but I would only use that as a tiebreaker. Rain is nowhere to be seen this week, and the wind seems rather mild, relatively speaking, up until Sunday. Sunday could be really fun based on today's wind forecast. If you fancy a live bet and the forecast stays the same, consider betting someone a few shots back on Sunday morning that could post a number early and take it down.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Pay Attention!
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for the Valspar Championship 2021
I'm really living in the middle on this card with everyone from 35 to 80/1. I don't think I've ever had a card that didn't have at least one pick at 100/1 or longer, but here we are. I just love the middle of the outright market so much, and I had a really hard time eliminating a name from the middle (so I didn't).
For those of you working off a larger bankroll, the long shots I eliminated last from this card were List at 175/1 and Hoge at 200/1. In the shorter range, I still love Reed at 20/1 (not allowed since it's shorter than 25/1) and Casey at 22/1.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 12 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Jason Kokrak is projected to be one of the highest owned guys in DFS and may be worth a gamble there, but I'm not going to avoid betting him considering his incredible record here and his three Top 10s in his last 4 events.
"Where the hell is Charley Hoffman!?" you ask...he's on my betting card because he's golfing his damn ball lately fam! He's putting better, his irons are hot, and he's had some strong finishes here. The veteran and multi time PGA TOUR winner is very capable of closing the door on a Sunday in tough conditions.
Speaking of a ball striking veteran, enter a guy that gains strokes on tough courses and in the wind over his career in Ryan Palmer. The only surface he actually gains strokes putting on...? Bermuda!
How good has Cameron Tringale been since the restart last year? Really damn good. How about four Top 10s in 20 events with only 1 missed cut since November. He's added some length and he's one of the better, more consistent iron players on the PGA TOUR. Ignore the poor record here. Ignore the fact that he's not a PGA TOUR winner. I think he's close. I think he's a different player than he's been over the years, and I think he's hungry.
I will bet fractional unit after fractional unit on Chris Kirk every damn week on a course where length isn't required and as long as he keeps golfing his damn ball the way he has been. The end.
Homa, Keegan and Woodland are my longer plays, but the numbers feel too long considering some of the win equity (Pat's favorite term) lacking in the names above them on the betting board. They're all 3 PGA TOUR winners with experience contending on tough courses in strong fields. They're all longer hitters that should have no problems finding fairways while clubbing down off the tee. The iron play and chops on these three are too good to ignore. I love the value for all these fellas.
Outright Winner
J. Kokrak 35/1 DraftKings $9
C. Hoffman 50/1 PointsBet $7
R. Palmer 50/1 PointsBet $6
C. Tringale 50/1 PointsBet $7
C. Kirk 55/1 DraftKings $7
M. Homa 70/1 PointsBet $5
K. Bradley 70/1 DraftKings $5
G. Woodland 80/1 PointsBet $4