Outright Bets for The Valero Texas Open 2023
The Betting Approach for The Valero Texas Open 2023
After 2 weeks of dancing all around the winner...we nailed the 2 guys in the Final Match at the WGC Dell Match Play with both Burns & Young on the card! BOME! We're now sittin on a sizeable stack of units for the season and ready to make it 3 in a row for TJ enterprises after Pat hit T. Moore at 50/1 prior to me hitting Burns at 50/1.
The Valero Texas Open is back as the PGA TOUR heads to TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course. It's a Pete Dye design with some help from Sergio Garcia & Greg Norman...insert LIV jokes. The main defense of the course is the Texas winds, but if you miss these fairways and the light rough, you can really eject from the tournament. We've also seen a ton of first time PGA TOUR winners hit here, and plenty of long shots like Spaun, Landry and Monday qualifier, Corey Conners back in the day.
I don't think experience around another tricky-ish Pete Dye design is mandatory, but it never hurts. The weather looks stable as of Monday afternoon with the gusty winds blowing all 4 days. I don't see a favorable draw for now, but that's not to say that can't change. We've seen it before in Texas and at the Valero in particular. However, given the forecast now, and my busy pre Masters checklist of things to do, I'm jumping on this early since the lines are likely better now than they will be all week.
More Intel on TPC San Antonio
We're all quite familiar with TPC San Antonio at this point, but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
I also did this course breakdown video in 2022 that's still quite relevant today for understanding what it takes at The Oaks Course.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Valero Texas Open 2023
I'm now up 30 units (thanks to 50/1 Sam Burns) on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
As you can see, I'm hauling my betting balls around in a wheel barrow this week after the hit at the Match Play, plus the #LongShotSZN nature of this tournament. I've got a hefty 10 names on the card, and I'm spending 5 units to win between 29-33 units with a winner.
It's an in form bunch of potential first time PGA TOUR winners on the card with the exception of Wallace (as of last week), Kizzire, and "Little David Lingmerth." Riley, Noren, Ben An, Martin & Hickok have all had close calls and felt the heat late on a Sunday in the past.
I guess guys like Riley, Wallace, Martin, Lingmerth and Hickok shouldn't surprise you given their recent play and/or price. But I'd imagine some of you are surprised to see names like Noren and Kizzire on the card this week. Fox & Shelton are, of course, card carrying members of the "Guys DB's an Obsessive Fan of" fan club.
Kizzire is popping for me just in the sense that he's a multiple PGA TOUR winner that seemingly can close on the rare occassions he's got a chance on a Sunday afternoon. Pair that with solid iron play of late, and the always deadly putter, oh and don't forget that you can kind of spray it off the tee here...and I think you get a guy that's at least a closer relative to this field at 100/1.
Alex Noren was a late pop for me today as I completely looked over him in this morning's 1st Look Betting Show (exclusively for Nut Hut Discord members). He went 0-2-1 in Match Play, but gained strokes with his irons, and he's always got a deadly short game. His issue has, like Kizzire, been with wild misses off the tee. But again, it feels like Noren is ready to close the door on his first PGA TOUR win even though doubts are there whether or not he ever will. I could see him doing it in a field like this far more so than an elevated event.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
