Betting Long Shots for The Valero Texas Open 2021

Thank God last week is over and next week is The Masters. You'll notice for the first time in a while, that I've got a trio of first round leaders. Given the cold temps and gusts in the upper 20s tomorrow for the morning wave, I'm taking 3 long shots teeing off in the afternoon when it's warmed up and wind gusts are cut in half. As a reminder, a lot of first round leader bets get split due to ties and dead heat rules, and I don't get an erection splitting a guy 3 ways at 50/1.

Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 7 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 27 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.

Chris Kirk has continued to do everything well. He's gained nearly 26 strokes total in the last 5 years. Don't be a kumquat and over think this one.

Keegan Bradley's ball striking continues to be otherworldly, and I'm back on the train after jumping off for a breather. He's made 3 of 4 cuts here, including a T9 in 2011.

Lanto Griffin's stinger video from earlier has me with a semi as his iron play continues to stay red hot. Lanto's ability to close the door on any given PGA TOUR event, especially with a garbage field like this, is too enticing at 50/1.

Aaron Wise makes me a little nervous, but his upside is too enticing given his ball striking. Like Keegan, he just needs to have an average putting week. He's gained strokes over his career on difficult courses and in windy conditions. Make a damn putt, Aaron!

Oh Ry Mo! Oh Ry Mo! I'm going with short knocker, super accurate and ridiculous course history guy here with Ryan. He needs a little magic to jump start his game, and he's excited to get to a place where he's very comfortable. He's gained 32 strokes here total in 3 years.

I'll take the Texas Narrative for $1000, Alex. Give me Doug Ghim fresh off an epic Sunday collapse at TPC where he creamed himself on his way to potentially winning his first PGA TOUR event. I love the ball striking prowess in the windy conditions and I gotta believe he learned a ton from TPC.

My quartet of triple digit handsome fuckers are all primed to deliver the units late on Sunday! Ryder and Rodge (Sloan) are showing some major form and confidence lately, and both have been in the final couple groups on a Sunday (Ryder more recently). Wouldn't Kevin Chappell winning this event for the 2nd time while playing off a major medical be the feel good story we all need...? The answer is YES! Chappell's picking and choosing his spots these days as he's working off limited starts, and he's always been a great wind player. KH Lee's short game and off the tee game are very strong. If he can figure out how to hit an iron, he can win.