DraftKings Picks for THE PLAYERS Championship 2021
A year after the Coronavirus shutdown the PGA Tour and the world around us, we have returned to the scene to finish what was started. Hideki Matsuyama came out firing in Round 1 of the 2020 THE PLAYERS Championship before the event was cancelled. It is time for take #2 at TPC Sawgrass. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.
Golf’s fifth major and one of the most exciting events of the year is just days away but first we must talk about the big swinging, powerful poking, Bryson DeChambeau and his entertaining victory at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill once again bit the field in the ass and a windy Sunday provided carnage and chaos across the leaderboard. Both rounds on the weekend DeChambeau blasted 350+ yard drives over the water on the par 5 6th, cutting about 90% of the hole. Fun shit to watch. Golf is great.
Back to THE PLAYERS! I wonder if it’s always capitalized because it desperately wants to be a major… In any case, THE PLAYERS Championship boasts one of the top fields every season and carries a list of who’s who in golf when it comes to former winners. Rory Mcilroy is the defending 2019 champion joining the likes of Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Davis Love, Canadian legend Sephen Ames, and more recently, Webb Simpson, Rickie Fowler, and Si Woo Kim.
Most of the world’s top 100 and then some are in the field this week looking to make their mark. In fact the field is set at 154 at the time of this draft, 10 spots more than usual. Two noticeable absentees this year will be Tiger and Brooks Koepka, with the news on Sunday of Koepka withdrawing due to some knee soreness. I think it is entirely possible BK just saw he was paired up with Patrick Reed for the first two rounds and was like, “Nah.”
TPC Sawgrass Course Breakdown
Behold the glorious Pete Dye designed Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The iconic 17th island green par 3, forever amalgamated with the voice of Gary Koch and his legendary “Better than most” call as Tiger’s 50-foot birdie putt in 2001 seeked the bottom of the cup. Like the 17th hole, Sawgrass is mostly a body of water with a majestic golf landscape in the middle.
Just off the east coast of Florida in Ponte Vedra Beach lies Dye’s jewel. The par 72, 7,189 yard beaut will play a bit differently this year. Normally featured in May, the schedule restructure has the event moved to March and thus the conditions and the course change as well. Typically a bermudagrass dominated course, the bermuda lies dormant this time of the year so the overseeded ryes, bent, and poa take over. From tee to green the players will meet some champion fine ryegrass with the bent/poa mix awaiting them on the greens. Water will be in play on 17 holes and 88 bunkers line the greens and fairways.
Though the history is rich at Sawgrass it isn’t as big of a factor here than at some other courses, especially with the shift in season. History playing Pete Dye tracks tells a better story. Key stats basically start with approach every week. Ball strikers and tee to green specialists win and place every week and this week will be no different. Guys have to control their balls with all the trouble around every corner and these greens are not the most receptive. Drivers won’t be as important this week so look for placement off the tee over distance.
Always toss in some of Fantasy National’s opps gained stat paired with some birdie or better % to see who is taking advantage but looking to see who is avoiding bogeys will be helpful as well. Looking more at the course; five of the par 4s will play between 450-500 yards and three of the par 5s play 500-550 yards. I also used a bit of scrambling and 3-putt avoidance in my models this week.
The Picks & Fades
Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.
$9k+:
DB: Play - Rory McIlroy | Fade - Patrick Reed
Pat: Play - Dustin Johnson | Fade - Patrick Reed
AC: Play - Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay | Fade - Dustin Johnson
Xander’s ownership is coming in criminally low for one of the best golfers in the planet the last few months. With the way the course will play this week and how he has played some of the comp courses, X marks the spot. Sorry. Moving on, yes, I am going right back to Bryson. Bryson has won back to back prolific events in the past. I think his chances of doing it again this week are great and his price is way too low. Cantlay has been playing as good as anyone and also has killer Pete Dye history. Fading DJ?! Yes. DJ’s putter has been off for a bit and his ball striking hasn’t been mind blowing. To pay up for him you need a top 5 and I just don’t see it.
$8k:
DB: Play - Paul Casey | Fade - Scottie Scheffler
Pat: Play - Hideki Matsuyama | Fade - Adam Scott
AC: Play - Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Paul Casey | Fade - Adam Scott
I have been quite a fan of Scottie since he joined the tour and though his stats won’t jump off the page, the guy is a gamer and is coming off of a top 5 at the WGC and a T7 at the WMPO. Going back to Spieth again. I am just loving his play and his attitude is so great right now. The stats also look good so sign me up. Back to back T10s for Casey, his Dye history, and his stats at comp courses all make him look juicy this week. As for the fade, it hurts me to fade Adam Scott but I generally stay true to my models and unfortunately, Scott, as good looking as a man that he is, does not fair well on paper.
$7k:
DB: Play - Chris Kirk | Fade - Max Homa
Pat: Play - Max Homa | Fade - Justin Rose
AC: Play - Joaquin Niemann, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Chris Kirk | Fade - Louis Oosthuizen/Justin Rose
Niemann is a stud and his tee to green, opps gained, and bob% numbers jump off the page. He is generally a guy you want on your DraftKings lineups. Sign me up for a discounted $7k price tag. Cbez on the other hand won’t dazzle you with long drives and precise irons but he puts the ball in play, gets it to the green, and then silkily puts that ball in the hole. He is one of my favorite Euro Tour guys and the kid has put up some nice results including last week at the API and last year’s first round right here. I love Chris Kirk. I love his story and I love the grind. He has been kind to me as I’ve been riding him since the beginning of the year and the stats look real nice for a guy at $7k. I have a rule to never play a guy coming off a last minute or mid-event WD. It’s just never great for business. There are so many great plays in the $7k range to risk guys that aren’t 100%.
$6k:
DB: Play - Keegan Bradley, Emiliano Grillo, Bo Hoag
Pat: Play - Charlie Hoffman, Keegan Bradley, Johnny Vegas
AC: Play - Kevin Streelman, Brendan Steele, Matthew NeSmith
I did not have Streelman in mind until I was almost done digging. The numbers do stand out down here though and we might be the only ones playing him. His comp course and Pete Dye history are sneaky good though and everything else but his short game are above average. Steele was one of the first names I wrote down this week because I knew he would be super cheap and he cashed a T20 bet for me last week. The ball striking numbers are great and he had a top 10 here three years ago. NeSmith hurt me last week but the numbers are just too good to hop off. I went back and forth with this last pick for far too long. If Henrik Stenson plays well this week I am going to be sad.
THE INS & OUTS
OUT: Brooks Koepka, Danny Willet (COVID)
IN: Anirban Lahiri, Kramer Hickok
Field is set at 154*
*NOTE: The field is 10 higher than usual. All 10 are in via the top 125 of the 2019-20 FedExCup and are considered add-ons. If any withdraws, he will not be replaced
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