Outright Bets for The Open Championship 2023
The Betting Approach for The Open Championship 2023
Rory snatched the 80/1 Bobby Mac outright from us as we lose out on another one with the leaderboard peppered late on a Sunday. This is just one of those seasons where the golf breaks aren't going my way. With a handful of tournaments left in the season, I'm looking to hit a winner this week and get me back to even.
It appears we aren't getting the kind of links weather we'd like for the first 2 rounds at The Open Championship, but Royal Liverpool could see some wind and rain on the weekend to make things interesting. For that reason, I'm ready to commit to my outrights and fire. I'm also glad I waited as we've seen some drifting numbers in that market since Monday.
I'm leaning on distance this week. I still think the longest hitters will club down on a few holes, but I want the distance with their approach shots as well as they face wind, soft grounds, and the longest back nine in Open Championship history.
More Intel on the Royal Liverpool
If you missed our conversation with Patrick Reed's caddie, Kessler Karain, on the betting show, you can click here and it will start playing from the interview. Kessler was at Royal Liverpool in 2014, and he spoke with us after he'd just walked off the course the second time this week. However, if you'd like a breakdown of the course, key stats and trends, then check out this write up from our very own, Nate Moore.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Open Championship 2023
Down 30 units on the season after Bobby Mac's win was stolen from bitch ass Rory and his nipply nipples! Spending 5 units to win between 30 and 32 if by some miracle, we hit a winner.
Welp. I decided to play it tight. I discussed my dilemma on this week's betting podcast, and I went with what I consider a peckish card based on the history of the BBBC. I've rarely had 3 names shorter than 35/1 on any card. Even last year when I hit Cam Smith at 28/1, he was my only player shorter than 40/1.
We spoke about all of these guys on the pods this week. They're all long enough hitters. They've all got solid play around the greens. Links records are good on most of them with Gooch having less experience.
I ended up leaving out Fleetwood based on his lopsided odds against Hatton and Fowler on some of the sharper H2H books.
With the links record and course fit from DJ and Finau, I just couldn't bring myself to leave them off with the value.
Gooch is somewhat of a wildcard, but you can't argue with his play this season, and he's bagged two top 35 finishes in his first two Open Championships. I'm sure he and DJ are thinking about the Ryder Cup implications this week holds as well.
Bobby Mac and Fox are just two maulers playing well at the moment with solid links golf records. Macintyre is a tremendous value at 90/1 given his Open record and current form.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
