The Pivot Point | Mexico Open 2022

Welcome to the "revitalized" Pivot Point series. I always enjoy reading these types of articles, and now it's my pleasure to begin writing them. The message is simple. You cannot (or there's a very, very slim chance) win a GPP by simply plugging in all the "best" plays without paying attention to ownership. That's where I come in. Some chalk is good, some not so good. Let's find a way to pivot away from the (potentially) not so good.

What You're Getting From This Series

Since this is first edition of the Pivot Point, I'll give you a quick rundown of what you'll be getting every week.

This article will be released every Wednesday, and will include one $9k and above, one $8k, and one $7k and below pivot play away from the heavily owned players. We all listen to the same shows (if you're smart, you're checking out all the additional videos that the TJ boys are putting out!), and they're giving you all the same best plays.

With those plays, they're also giving you the same guys that everyone else is playing. You can't win that way. Consume all the content you consume, then come Wednesday, read this piece, and throw in your pivots.

Now, THAT'S how you win. Let's get to it.

Patrick Reed ($10,000) | ~7%

This one will go a bit beyond the stats. This tournament has a real "Jon Rahm vs. the field" type of feel to it. But, if we look at the course with the information we have, Rahm's biggest strength, his driver, could be neutralized with easy-to-hit fairways and a bombs away layout. Enter Patrick Reed.

Reed's biggest weakness of late has been off the tee. His approach play has been weak as well (130th in this field, last 36 rounds), but his ball striking/approach play has been solid on courses over 7,400 yards (51st and 55th respectively).

He's still one of the better putters on Tour, and has been exceptionally good putting on slower greens. One thing we know about this course is the paspalum putting surfaces, which are notoriously slower than Tour average.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Reed contend this week on a track where his driver can be sprayed a little bit at an event that could potentially turn into a putting contest on an easier, resort-style track. Not to mention, in a field that severely lacks win equity, Reed leads the field with 9 wins on his resume. Yes, even more than Rahm.

Lanto Griffin ($8,300) | ~8%

Lanto Griffin was one of the most popular, and consistent, players in the $7k range in early 2021. He found his form again early in 2022, and then seemed to have lost it again. Now, with the bump to $8k in the weaker field, and coming off three missed cuts in his last four events, he won't find his way into many lineups this week. That's a mistake.

Over his last five events (3 MCs, and two finishes outside the top-50), he's been throwing strokes to the field off the tee and around the green. Two stats that I care not much at all about this week. I've made my off the tee stance known; and frankly, if you're around the green game comes into play this week, you're already cooked. This golf course boasts some of the widest fairways, and largest greens on Tour; keep that in mind.

What Lanto does excel at is long iron play and putting. Two things that I'm putting a TON of stock in this week. Hit the greens with longer irons and make putts, that's how you will do well here. Griffin is 6th in this field (L36) in both approach play and approach play on courses over 7,400 yards. Consistency. He's also 23rd in this field in proximity from 175-200 over the last 50 rounds. Consistency. Sensing a theme here?

Driver accuracy, not so important. Iron play, important. Check. Chipping, not so important. Putting, important. Check.

Lanto Griffin. Check.

David Lipsky ($7,700) | ~3%

I believe people are going to smash play Austin Smotherman this week, and completely overlook Lipsky. It's hard to gather any data from the Zurich Classic last week, but Lipsky played very well in the Fourball rounds, which is really all you can take into account. On his own ball over those two rounds, he carded 10 birdies and an eagle. Quirky format or not, that's some quality golf and nice to see following his missed cut at the Valero a few weeks ago.

Not qualifying for The Masters, he had a couple weeks to recharge following a stretch in which he played eight events in ten weeks. He obviously figured something out for the Zurich, why can't he continue that into Mexico? He's been leaking strokes off the tee, but as I've previously mentioned, I don't think that will hurt you very much this week. He's plenty long enough to compete on this golf course, and you have the ability to miss your target off the tee and still be just fine.

The numbers that jumped out at me: he's 11th in this field in approach on courses over 7,400 yards, and he's 5th in this field in the last 50 rounds in proximity from 175-200 yards. I think that will approach distance will be a key on this track, and he suits it perfectly. If the Zurich Classic did nothing else, I believe it did build the confidence in Lipsky, as well as his teammate, Aaron Rai, that can be carried over into Mexico.