DFS GPP Pivot Plays | Genesis Scottish Open 2022
The Pivot Point series focuses on finding the players that will give you the ownership leverage to take down the biggest GPP contests!
Results from the John Deere Classic Pivot Point
Lanto Griffin ($8,200) | MC
Anirban Lahiri ($7,800) | T51
Well, we produced a winner, so we followed it up with.. well, this. Not a good week. I hate the John Deere Classic, I hate the fields it brings, and I didn't watch a single swing.
The chalk hit this week, so that doesn't bode too well for this series. J.T. Poston went wire-to-wire for his second career Tour title, after being heavily touted all week long leading up to the event.
Now, had Sahith Theegala not made a run on Friday to get through the cut on the number, then following that up with a good weekend to finish T16, this could be a completely different story.
But, we go on. The Scottish Open is one of the better non-major events on the calendar, and I'm thrilled it's now a PGA sanctioned event. Let's get on with it!
DraftKings GPP Pivot Plays for the 2022 Genesis Scottish Open
Collin Morikawa ($9,400) | ~12%
I've been running this entire season with a "Morikawa has to turn it around at some point" mentality. He's too good. He flashed at the U.S. Open before falling off on Saturday. We know what he's capable of, and his price is rapidly dropping. Let's be honest, $9.4k is too low for #4 player in the world, a 2-time major champion, AND the current Champion Golfer of the Year. I want to be ahead of it when he does come out and run away with a victory.
We know the prowess with the irons. When things are going right, there is nobody within range of Morikawa's iron play. Also, we saw a very good display of putting for 3 of the 4 days at The Country Club. We also know that slow greens (The Renaissance Club will run about a 10 on the stimp) will hide a lot of the flaws of the poor putters. These are all things going in Morikawa's favor.
Let's talk stats. Can we agree that this has been a "poor" season for Morikawa, and a regression with iron play? Perfect. His "poor" play equates to this:
2nd - strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions
13th - proximity over the last 36 rounds played
13th - strokes gained on par-3's over last 36 rounds played (Renaissance Club has five par-3's)
14th - strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds played
21st - strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds played
Awful, right? He will win before this season ends. It may be this week, it may be next week. It may be both.
Viktor Hovland ($8,400) | ~10%
Hovland is generally a very difficult guy to get correct, unless you're at Mayakoba. His around the green game is so horrifically bad that it's hard to play him at most venues.
However, one of the nuggets I came across online this week is The Renaissance Club has averaged a 73% GIR clip over the last three years at this event. That is exceptionally high for an event, and it was strictly a DP World Tour event prior to this year. Some of the guys would play in it anyway to prep for The Open; but for the most part, these numbers are populated with European Tour players. Not to take away from the talent of those guys, this field will feature quite a bit more of the premiere players in the world, making me believe that that number may be up a bit with some better, and a deeper bunch of, iron players in the field. If Hovland doesn't have to chip as much, he'll be in contention.
I watched the Golf Digest YouTube flyover of the course, and the greens look tricky. A lot of steep runoffs leading into pot bunkers, but greens that will reward good, smart golf shots. Viktor Hovland is 1st in this field over the last 36 rounds played in proximity to the hole. That bodes well for keeping him away from having to chip. Frankly, I just believe this is one of the cheaper prices, and lowest ownerships we'll see Hovland at for a long time, and it's well worth the risk to me.
He's top-15 in all the same stats that I listed above for Morikawa. He is simply an elite ball-striker. If he gets it going with the long game, he will be a GPP winner.
Erik van Rooyen ($7,100) | ~3.5%
Part of my process each week is to go back through about 6 or 7 years of course history at each event. I count top-3's, top-5's, top-10's, and top-20's at each event. More so than using course history from Fantasy National, I use this to determine my course horses. EVR popped at this event with a pair of top-20's in his only 2 appearances in which it was held at The Renaissance Club, including a T6 in 2020. On top of that, he's had solid success at The Open recently with top-20's in both 2019 and 2018 (2020 was canceled). Links course player it would seem.
The only thing that would be holding him back would be his recent form. He hasn't looked good in missing his last four cuts in row. He's had a bit of a strange season. He finished T13 at the Players, the MC'd at the Masters. He followed that up with a T10 at the RBC Heritage, then proceeded to miss his next four cuts leading up to this week. When he plays four rounds, he's playing them well. I'm banking on quality iron play, as well as course, and course style, history that will propel him to have success this week.
Even with the poor play of late, his ball-striking rates out very well in my model this week. In the last 36 rounds played, he ranks 11th in strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions, and 15th in strokes gained approach. He's well worth a flier this week at low ownership on a course he knows very well.