Outright Bets for The Sony Open 2024
The Betting Approach for The Sony Open 2023
We almost started the year off with a 66/1 banger had Sahith remembered he was one of the best chippers and putters in the world on his 72nd hole at Kapalua. But...here we are. Nobody had Kirk on the card, and it just speaks to the variance of putting competitions in perfect scoring conditions on the PGA TOUR.
This week the PGA TOUR heads to Waialae Country Club in Honolulu for the Sony Open with 144 players in the field ready to get their year started with a bang.
Outside of some gusty conditions most of the day on Thursday, it looks to be perfect for scoring at The Sony yet again. I'd anticipate the winning score somewhere in the low -20s. We've only seen 1 winner in the last 6 years shorter than 20/1, and while this field is the strongest in a long time, I'm bullish on the chance to catch another long shot winner.
The key to victory at Waialae has been gaining strokes on approach and putting at all costs. It's hard to separate yourself off the tee, and around the green play separation is NOT indicative of scoring typically.
30 players over the last 5 years, have finished T5 or better at The Sony Open, and only 2 of them LOST strokes putting and 5 of them lost strokes on approach.
Plus, you have the trend of the winner typically having knocked the rust off the week before at The Sentry AND have had a solid finish at The Sony Open in a prior year.
More Intel on the course
We've got plenty of caddie friends on site this week to help us understand how this golf course is playing. I'll also be paying close attention to the player quotes throughout the week and dropping them in the Nut Hut Discord.
I'm also back to doing my weekly course breakdown videos that drop on Sunday afternoons. I'll be discussing course insights, key stats, and sharing my screen for an early look at the Bet The Number model. Check out this week's video if you'd like more on Kapalua.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Research, #Cheat-Sheets, or #Caddie-Info channels this week...you're missing a TON of information.
The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 14/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units, the 2021-2022 season up 26 units and the 2022-2023 season down 10 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
So for the last 4 PGA TOUR seasons, this article is up 67 units. However, the landscape of the PGA TOUR has changed, and the winners have been shorter over the last 2 years. For that reason, I've decided to start the 2024 season at a 20/1 minimum instead of 25/1.
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Sony Open 2023
Only the 2 bombs at the bottom of the card didn't tee it up in Maui last week, but all of these guys have played Waialae with at least one solid finish. Full disclosure: Harman, Kirk, Poston & Glover were all taken at the numbers below on Monday morning when I did the 1st look outright show with the Discord. I'd say we landed some nice closing line value on those four gents.
I didn't go all out on the amazing putters like I did at Kapalua, but certainly Harman, Kirk, JT, Griffin, and Whaley can roll it. Svensson and Glover's ball striking approach play just make them too enticing on smaller greens that we hear are fairly soft after heavy rains earlier in the week. If either one of them can get even slightly warm on the greens, they could run away with it.
I'm spending 5 units to win 30 units with a hit. We're down 5 on the season.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
