Outright Bets for The Shriners Children's Open 2022
The Betting Approach for The Shriners Children's Open 2022
We don't favorites here in TJ Land™, so we weren't on Max Homa as the betting favorite to win the Fortinet. And my apologies for not putting out the card last week as I was recovering from the Goalby's Cup hangover. So...here we are. The PGA TOUR features a sneaky strong field this week for the Shriners Children's Open in Las Vegas from TPC Summerlin.
The sportsbooks have the winning over/under total at -22.5! This could end up being the easiest course on the PGA TOUR schedule for this season as it's historically been in the top 5 to 10 easiest. With the average GIR% at TPC Summerlin falling above 72% on average, this will be a high variance birdie fest likely won by the guy making the most putts inside of 10 to 15 feet.
TPC Summerlin's variance has produced a handful of absolute nuclear bomb winners like Pampling at 300/1, Smylie Kauffman at 250/1 and Martin Laird at 225/1 just 2 years ago. When we run up on a birdie fest with variance, I tend to have a lengthy card full of outright lottery tickets while avoiding the top end of the board.
More Intel on TPC Summerlin
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Silverado will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC).
You can also watch this 16 minute video where I break it all down with features, stats, trends, player quotes and more on TPC Summerlin. This is everything you need to know and NOTHING you don't.
We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Shriners Children's Open 2022
After skipping the Cock Chicken Farms Championship with a Goalby's Cup hangover, I'm back for my 2nd BBBC of the new PGA TOUR season down 5 units from the Fortinet. I'm spending 5 more units on this card with the goal of winning between 37 and 45 units if we hit a winner. As you can see, I'm fully embracing #LongShotSZN at The Shriners Children's Open with no bets shorter than 50/1. If Pampling, Smylie and Laird can win this thing at odds over 225/1...then let's gamble fam!
When constructing this card, I went with guys that have already played something since the playoffs, strong wedge players, strong putters (helloooooo...GRILLO!), and obviously value + win equity. I ignored distance completely, whether long or short...I don't care.
I dug deep into the wedge play and the players long term, rolling report around the wedge proximity ranges. After that, it's all about the putter for me. With the winning score being so ridiculous, I want the guys that can roll in a bunch of putts.
I certainly looked at course history at TPC Summerlin as well as overall performance in desert golf settings. A lot of these names have been knocking on the door of their first PGA TOUR victory, and they're battle hardened. I'm optimistic that guys like Hubbard, Nesmith, Ben An, Sigg, & Lower can close the door if given a chance this week.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!