Shriners Hospitals for Children 2020 Betting Card
Betting the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Vegas is getting quite the crop of PGA Tour talent this week for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open from TPC Summerlin. The field is getting stronger year by year at this fall tour stop and for good reason. TPC Summerlin is a lovely track that lends itself to tons of birdies when you're not doing blow off a rented lady of the night or gambling your rainy day fund away in the casinos. With the Vegas stop, you always hear about locals that either live here, grew up here or played college golf in the area. Over the years, we've heard from a dozen PGA Tour players that it's tough to know when a "local guy" actually enjoys playing locally over playing somewhere away from home. Some guys thrive. Some are distracted throughout the week. Don't put too much stock in the local narrative.
TPC Summerlin is a resort style track par 71 playing around 7200 yards and featuring bentgrass green surfaces. The greens aren't super difficult to hit or navigate in terms of slope. I disagree with Pat some on fairway finding off the tee being a requirement. If you didn't need to find fairways at Winged Foot...you won't need to find them here. I'm leaning distance, approach play and bentgrass putting prowess. Now, the course does sit at elevation with the ball flying about 5-7% farther according to our caddie friends. The three par 5s are all gettable by the field, but you better take advantage. Given the weather looks pretty benign, I think the winning score will be around -18 to -20.
Over the last 5 years, we've seen the winner's outright odds get shorter than the years where Pampling (300/1), Smylie (250/1), and Martin (225/1) lifted the trophy at TPC Summerlin. Cantlay won at 20/1. Bryson won at 14/1. And in 2019, Kevin Na won at 60/1. With the field being rather strong, the win equity in the top 10 names or so is pretty strong. I plan on living in the mid range with a few triple digit bombs sprinkled in.
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My Betting Approach
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Pay Attention!
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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My Shriners Hospitals for Children Open 2020 Picks
We almost had another huge week at the Sanderson with Cam Davis leading after 54 holes, Ventura 2 shots back and Hoffman 3 shots back going into Sunday. All of them completely shit down their good leg. The Betting Card is now officially up 25 units since the start of the new season. Let's get to the guys catching my eye!
Despite some young studs out there with real fire power (Doc Redman, Kristopher Ventura, etc), I'm leaning a little more on experience this week given what it's going to take to beat this stronger field. I'm just not sure I love a first time PGA Tour winner beating the likes of Bryson, Wolff, Morikawa, Webb and company. For now, the only name I'm looking at that hasn't won is Cam Davis. My love for him is well documented and at least he likely learned a few things last week being in the final group and watching Sergio take that victory.
I love the form Louie Oosthuizen is riding, and he's always a box checking fool in terms of ball striking. I think Niemann's game has turned a corner since the restart. I believe he's ready to win more golf tournaments, and his ball striking ability gives him the tools to do so. As long as Si Woo Kim is in good form and longer than 60 or 70/1, I'll bet him. He's got too much fire power and win equity. His aggressive nature will always translate in a birdie fest like the Shriners.
As I lean into the triple digit long shots, I look at 3 names that have a decent record here at TPC Summerlin. List, Steele and Hadwin have all played well at this event to some extent. List is a volatile guy, but his length and scoring ability is a mainstay. He just needs putts to roll. Bentgrass greens run true as any surface, and may allow Luke to roll it a little better than a grainy bermuda like we saw last week. Steele (and his hideous swing) is always in play when he's in solid form and arriving to a birdie fest west of the Mississippi River. Finally, Hadwin is an under the radar play for me as his recent form doesn't give you a lot of high finishes. But, he's really only competed in the toughest tournaments since the restart and he's making cuts. He's a tremendous value on DK as PointsBet has him at 100/1. Hadwin is always going to putt the eyes out of it, so you're just hoping he can give himself a ton of opportunities.
***ADDED WEDNESDAY - I didn't make a ton of changes to the card from yesterday. I added Denny McCarthy at 75/1 as his form continues to be solid and now arrives at a track that doesn't require full on mollywhoppin ability off the tee. Couple that with a T15 and T9 in his last 2 starts here, and I'll take a piece. I also made McCarthy my only first round leader bet this week. I don't see a tremendous advantage tomorrow with either wave, but the later AM guys will see slightly warmer temps than the super early guys, a little less wind than the PM wave, and still get the early in the day softer greens. There are a handful of other names at 80/1 that I like, but he's my favorite.
Outright Winner
Oosthuizen 40/1 on DK Sportsbook $9
Niemann 55/1 on DK Sportsbook $6
Davis 60/1 on PointsBet $7
McCarthy 75/1 on DK Sportsbook $5
Si Woo Kim 80/1 on PointsBet $5
List 100/1 on PointsBet $5
Steele 100/1 on DK Sportsbook $4
Hadwin 140/1 on DK Sportsbook $4
First Round Leader
McCarthy 80/1 on PointsBet $5