Outright Bets for The Sentry 2024
The Betting Approach for The Sentry 2023
The new PGA TOUR season kicks off in Hawaii from the Kapalua Plantation Course as 59 of the best show up for The Sentry. I'm pumped for a new season of outright firing and a fresh slate after a grueling year in 2023. It was my worst year of the last 4 seasons and the only year I lost money (down 10 units). But papa's got a brand new bag and new tools in the arsenal this season!
The weather looks perfect for scoring in Maui with typical afternoon winds in the low 20s at times. That's typical for Kapalua, so we should see the winning score between -25 and -28. Given the scoring conditions, the near 80% GIR rates over the last 3 years, and the best ball strikers in the world ready to go low -- I see it harder to separate yourself with elite ball striking. I'm targeting solid ball strikers of course, but I'm keen on the ones that can also roll the rock on the greens to fill it up.
More Intel on the course
We've got plenty of caddie friends on site this week to help us understand how this golf course is playing. I'll also be paying close attention to the player quotes throughout the week and dropping them in the Nut Hut Discord.
I'm also back to doing my weekly course breakdown videos that drop on Sunday afternoons. I'll be discussing course insights, key stats, and sharing my screen for an early look at the Bet The Number model. Check out this week's video if you'd like more on Kapalua.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Research, #Cheat-Sheets, or #Caddie-Info channels this week...you're missing a TON of information.
The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 14/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units, the 2021-2022 season up 26 units and the 2022-2023 season down 10 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
So for the last 4 PGA TOUR seasons, this article is up 67 units. However, the landscape of the PGA TOUR has changed, and the winners have been shorter over the last 2 years. For that reason, I've decided to start the 2024 season at a 20/1 minimum instead of 25/1.
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Sentry 2023
Startin off balls-a-draggin with the shortest guy on card at 30/1 in Matty Fitz! I'm spending 5 units to win between 34-39 units with a winner. As you can see, it's a solid list of putters with the exception of List and EVR. However, we saw glimpses of a new found putting stroke with both men as they won events in the Fall. It's worth a shot betting both of these multiple time PGA TOUR winners at triple digits in a 59 man field.
It's certainly a tall task to take down the likes of Scheffler, Hovland, Xander, Cantlay, Homa, etc, but we've seen the mid range come out on top plenty at Kapalua. 2 of the last 3 winners at Kapalua won at 22/1 and 33/1 (English). And you could argue those fields were even stronger than we have this week, given the LIV effect.
Ultimately, I believe Kapalua does in fact turn into a putting contest. And we all know that shakes things up a bit in terms of leaderboard variance. Unless Scottie, Hovland, Ludvig...just absolutely throw darts for 4 days without having to make putts outside of 10 feet, then I like having 9 guys live to take down the top tier studs.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
