Outright Bets for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2022
The Betting Approach for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2022
It was a win for TJ enterprises as JT at 18/1 was on Pat's betting card, but we nearly hit our 2nd in 3 weeks with Willy Z on this card at 40/1. We move on now to Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth for the Charles Schwab Challenge. We've got a ton of data on Colonial and the type of player that can win here certainly varies. We haven't had a triple digit outright winner here in over 7 years, but Kokrak, Berger, and Na all won in the 60-70/1 range. Bombers and dink and dunkers can both have success as players tend to hit to the same spots off the tee. However, we are hearing from some caddies on site now that there are few more "send it" holes for the bombers. Overall, we have to find guys that will hit a ton of these small greens in regulation to give plenty of birdie of looks.
The books are projecting the winning score at around -11.5. That's a pretty low number given the scoring has been that low since Kisner won in 2017 at -10. The wind is looking to rear its head a little on Thursday afternoon, but Saturday and Sunday look to be very windy. The wind is the only real line of defense at Colonial, and we've seen grinders with precision ball striking and upper tier scrambling come out on top in years where the wind is blowing.
More Intel on Colonial Country Club
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Colonial Country Club will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). Or, you can watch this video on our YouTube channel where I share stats, trends, player quotes and more about the golf course in just 15 minutes. We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Charles Schwab Challenge 2022
After the narrow miss on Willy Z for 40 units at the PGA, we move on simply up 3 units on the PGA TOUR season strictly betting long shots at 25/1 or longer. Homa's victory pulled us from the depths, but we gotta hit a winner this week to stay in the black.
This was one of the hardest cards in a while to narrow down. I clearly love this mid range. The last 3 winners of this event have been found in that 60-70/1 range. Tommy Lad & Na were the last 2 out and only due to unit restrictions and price.
I went with trending form guys with solid experience at Colonial up top with Finau, Kirk, and Harman. I tried to talk myself out of Davis Riley, but I just couldn't. This kid is clicking at the moment, and I love that he's already felt the Sunday rush of blood to his balls having lost in a playoff earlier in the year. Munoz & HV3 just seem to be hitting it so well, and both have been close to victory here recently, with Varner getting it done in the Middle East earlier this year and Munoz nearly winning the Byron just 2 weeks ago.
The trio in the triple digit range consists 2 guys I really believe can win and 1 guy that just arrives in really good form, but I still have a hard time believing in. Reed could be coming around ya'll...gaining 5.2 strokes with his irons last week was big. It was his best iron performance since June of 2021. He's a Texas guy, he thrives in the wind, he soaks up difficult conditions, and he loves bent grass greens. 100/1 is just too much value for P. Reed. He's 75 and 80/1 everywhere else.
Poston fits what Colonial rewards to a tee. He hits it straight and rolls the rock. Love that he's logged 2 top 10s in his last 3 starts. This guys is a PGA TOUR winner (nearly won a 2nd time, but lost to Seamus Power), and a course like Colonial is where he's likely to win again.
CT Pan is just CT Pan. I don't know. I hate clicking his name, but damnit he is playing well. He does all the things well. He just...doesn't feel like a winner to me, but he's won before. Hell...Martin Trainer has won on the PGA TOUR.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!