DraftKings Picks for the Charles Schwab 2021

Phil Mickelson conquered Kiawah and the PGA Championship this past weekend to capture his sixth major championship, making history as the 50-year old became the eldest winner of a golf major. This week we head back to Texas as Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth hosts the PGA Tour for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.

So close to cashing in on another big Brooks Koepka ticket. Heading into Sunday we had a bunch of potential deep prospects but only managed to hit the each-way on BK, Abe and Willy Z along with some T20s. It truly was an exciting week of golf and lucky for us, in the super season of golf, we get another major in less than four weeks.

This week we head back to the scene of golf’s post covid cancellation return. Being played a couple weeks earlier in 2021, the Charles Schwab Challenge was the first event to see action after a 10-week hiatus. As expected after a major, the field suffers a bit. The missed cut at the PGA Championship seems to have given world # 2, Justin Thomas, reason to tee it up in back to back weeks. Daniel Berger, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, Abe Ancer, Scottie Scheffler, and Will Zalatoris are just some of the names returning to action.

The field this week is set at 120. Berger is the defending champion after closing out Morikawa in a playoff with both men firing -15 on the week. Kevin Na won by four strokes in 2018 getting it to -13. Justin Rose (-20), Kevin Kisner (-10), Spieth (-17), Chris Kirk (-12), Adam Scott (-9), and Boo Weekly (-14) are just some of the former champions of the event. The top 65 and ties will make it to the weekend.

Colonial Country Club Course Breakdown

Colonial Country Club has hosted the PGA Tour for 75 years and is the longest running non-major event to be played at the same venue. Designed in 1936 by John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell, the Fort Worth, Texas track is a 7,200 yard par 70. The putting surfaces feature A-4 bentgrass with Tifway 419 bermudagrass in the fairways. The rough is a bermudagrass mix cut to 3 inches.

The greens at Colonial are quite small and the fairways quite narrow. Water can be found on six holes with 84 bunkers protecting the rest. Scoring is typically on the more difficult side, along with hitting fairways. The greens border between medium and firm and roll fast. Weather adds an additional defense and the early forecast doesn’t bode well for a calm and sunny week. High winds are likely to be a factor along with a bunch of rain received Monday and Tuesday with more to come.

With driving accuracy and distance off the tee well below average at the Charles Schwab, precision and fairways become key. Add the small greens and sub par greens in regulation (GIR) averages and approach is once again the top stat for me this week. Fire up Fantasy National and peek those opps gained and good drives stats. This is a very ball strikers course. Like most par 70 courses, there are only two par 5s to take advantage of and both will not be reachable for some of the field. Par 4 scoring will be huge this week and with 11 holes playing between 350 and 450 yards, take a look at those ranges specifically. Putting on bent is the second most valuable stat when looking at strokes gained from the top 10 over the years.

If you are not yet a member, join the Tour Junkies crew and some brilliant minds in Goalby’s Nut Hut. The Nut Hut is a discord chat with tons of insight, caddie news, banter, trash talk and most of all a collection of golf addicts that have won more than $3 million since the restart. Click the banner below to sign up!

The Picks & Fades

Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.

$9k+:

DB: Play - Jordan Spieth | Fade - Jason Kokrak

Pat: Play - Collin Morikawa | Fade - Jason Kokrak

AC: Play - Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners | Fade - Justin Thomas

Not going to get cute up here this week. I am confident in my model this week and rolling with the top three ranked up here. You don’t fade Spieth in Texas. The ownership may end up scary but don’t be empty handed. If you don’t want to find leverage elsewhere, make sure you have a top 10 bet. Morikawa is the leader in tee to green and ball striking in 2021 and 2nd in GIR and opps gained. The putter is the only worry but you can’t have elite ball striking and putting. Conners is 2nd in strokes gained total over the last 6 events and the best driver of the golf ball in the world right now. It does hurt to fade JT but his off the tee game and putter need some work. I’ll be back on him soon but not sure this is the week he climbs to number one in the world.

$8k:

DB: Play - Charley Hoffman | Fade - Kevin Streelman

Pat: Play - Matthew Wallace | Fade - Ryan Palmer

AC: Play - Charley Hoffman, Matthew Wallace | Fade - Kevin Na

I was happy to see the boys hop on my two picks this week as well. Hoffman is #1 in my model. #1 in opps gained, and #1 in DraftKings scoring in 2021. Don’t fade Texas Chuck. Staying on the Wallace train. Been on board since his run before the Masters and he has put himself in some great spots. Top 20 with irons in hand, opps gained and top 30 in GIR and DK scoring is also very helpful. I think 8400 is pretty steep for Kevin Na, he is a former champ but that was three years ago and so far in 2021 he is 91st in ball striking, 85th in GIR, and 71st in DK Scoring

$7k:

DB: Play - Joel Dahmen | Fade - Peter Uihlein

Pat: Play - Brandt Snedeker | Fade - Si Woo Kim

AC: Play - Matt Jones, Chris Kirk, Cameron Davis | Fade - Patton Kizzire

Matt Jones has been on a pretty good run and if you eliminate his worst round from his last three starts his finishes would be stellar. Jones is awesome on bent, great in the wind, and the tee to green numbers are solid. Kirk, my man. Kirk has been one of my favorite plays every week in 2021. He’s 10th tee to green, 10th in good drives, and 1st in 400-450 yard par 4s. The ownership does worry me though. Don’t have to worry about the ownership with Cam Davis though. Davis comes into the week #1 in 350-400 par 4s, 5th in opps gained, and 10th in ball striking. He is 20th overall in my model and on a course where driver doesn’t have to be a weapon he should be able to find some more fairways. Kizzire doesn’t rate out terribly in my model but the fairways, par 4 scoring, and course history are enough to look elsewhere.

$6k:

DB: Play - Maverick McNealy, Adam Schenk, Michael Thompson

Pat: Play - Tom Hoge, Henrik Stenson, Michael Thompson,

AC: Play - Joseph Bramlett, Andrew Putnam, Danny Lee

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: KH Lee, Louis Oosthuizen

IN: Tom Lewis, Vincent Whaley

Field set at 121