Betting Long Shots for the Charles Schwab 2021
The Betting Approach for the Charles Schwab 2021
Welp. We all lost our units last week as literally NOBODY had Phil winning a major championship at 50 years old. So here we are. Welcome to Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth, TX as the PGA TOUR hosts the Charles Schwab Challenge for the 75th year! We hit Berger on this article at 70/1 last year as this event was the first back after COVID.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Colonial Country Club will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
Weather is always a factor in Texas. This golf course has seen a ton of rain this week already, and in the weeks prior. The course is playing softer and a little longer than usual, although not long enough to deploy all the bombers. We could even see a lift, clean and place scenario on Thursday. All of this means that being in the fairway is even more crucial here at Colonial.
Being in the fairway means it's easier to control the spin into these peckish green complexes and it means you can be aggressive. If these greens are softened up, that takes the teeth out of them a little and let's these guys go flag hunting.
It also looks rather windy all four days as I write this on Wednesday morning. I don't see a tee time advantage just yet, but it's been changing. Catch the Nut Hut chat tonight for more thoughts on that closer to balls in the air tomorrow. So with the wind predicted, that puts more of an emphasis on guys that gain strokes in windy conditions and even "windy AF" conditions (per Fantasy National). Fire up the ball strikers!
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Pay Attention!
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long Shot Outright Bets for the Charles Schwab 2021
I'm serving you up a slightly overloaded card this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. I had a tough time narrowing it down and I really wanted the exposure to the triple digit guys that I like, despite only 1 triple digit here in the last 10 years or so (shout out Boo Weekley). But it is what it is...it's my f'ing article. So F your rules if you're mad at the number of bets. I need to hit one. I need a winner. I hate being in the red for the year. Pisses me off. The end.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article, alone, is now down 8 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Will Zalatoris needs a damn win. Can the Lord just get Will his win because he deserves to be in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as much as Cardi B deserves permanent laryngitis.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (2nd)
- Gains strokes in "Windy AF" conditions per FNGC
- SG: Total since March (43...F me runnin that's good)
Sing the following: Where the hell is Charley Hoffman?! He's on my betting card! He's on my betting card! Ok, now stop singing. Hoffman is red hot right now and he's a proven winner in Texas. The windier it gets, the better I like Charlie's chances.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (3rd)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Colonial only (4th)
- Gains strokes in "Windy AF" conditions per FNGC
Mr. 13% body fat, Billy Horschel is next on the card at 50/1 primarily because I like the value, I like that he's a winner, and I like that he's proven in solid field at tough courses.
- Fairways Gained Last 24 Rounds (10th)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (9th)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 12 Rounds at Colonial only (23rd)
- Gains strokes in Moderate & "Windy AF" conditions per FNGC
I'm back in on Cameron Tringale despite his display of golf diarrhea on 5 holes at Kiawah. Let's all not forget how obsessed everyone's been with his consistent ball striking over the last few months. I'm ignoring the poor record here as he just feels like a different player this season.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (40th)
- Fairways Gained Last 24 Rounds (14th)
- Gains strokes on bentgrass and gains strokes in the wind
It's #OldManSZN and Matt Kuchar is standing at the door with his damn hand out! This one feels a little scary, but let's cast out a partial unit in celebration of some old, wrinkly generic balls!
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (41st)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (49th)
- SG: Ball Striking Last 24 Rounds at Colonial only (16th)
- Gains strokes in Moderate & "Windy AF" conditions per FNGC
I'm going to keep beating the dead horse. His name is Matthew Wallace. I've been riding for weeks, and I'm too afraid to jump off. He's as confident as ever, and the game is in great shape. He's my favorite bet in the mid range.
- SG: Approach Last 24 Rounds (15th)
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass Last 75 Rounds (22nd)
- Fairways Gained Last 24 Rounds (38th)
- Two top 6 finishes in his last 5 starts
I'll make this quick for the longshot triple digit guys. Varner is playing well, claims to have found something with the putter since Wells Fargo, and finished runner up at Hilton Head just a few weeks ago. This place is set up perfectly for Joel Dahmen, and he's as confident as ever with his recent form and win a few weeks ago. Matt Nesmith is just a pure ball striker that hits fairways and greens. I like that at this course and with these soft conditions. Maverick McNealy is a boom or bust lifelong stud. He's come close a few times on the PGA TOUR for his breakout win. He's one of those incredible putters waiting on a good ball striking week. Finally, Nick Taylor just strikes me at that number. Here's a guy who hits a lot of fairways and decent GIR numbers that's putts his best on bentgrass. He gains strokes in "Windy AF" conditions. He's a 2x PGA TOUR winner with his most recent win being at Pebble Beach last February.
Outright Winner
W. Zalatoris 25/1 DK $10
C. Hoffman 40/1 DK $8
B. Horschel 50/1 PB $6
C. Tringale 66/1 DK $5
M. Kuchar 70/1 DK $5
M. Wallace 70/1 DK $5
H. Varner III 100/1 DK $3
J. Dahmen 110/1 DK $3
M. Nesmith 150/1 PB $2
M. McNealy 160/1 $2
N. Taylor 300/1 PB $1