DraftKings Picks for the RBC Heritage 2021

The Masters hangover is settling in but Major SZN continues just around the corner with the new monthly spread of golf’s greatest contests. The journey towards the PGA Championship begins at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC this week where the PGA Tour will host the 2021 RBC Heritage. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.

A huge congrats goes out to Hideki Matsuyma for taking down The Masters on Sunday. A stunning performance at Augusta National and deserving of the Green Jacket. Congrats to everyone that was on Deki. Once again the Tour Junkies nail another winner as Pat binked a 55-1 ticket on the Not That Anyone Really Cares betting card. If you bet on golf, you might want to start paying attention. I had tickets on Will Zalatoris and my Canadian brotha, Corey Conners, but luckily in Canada we can bet the each/way so cashed in nicely with both.

There is no rest for the wicked though and in the super season of golf it’s time to go back to work and dig into another Pete Dye masterpiece. Though it is entirely possible some entries may take the week off after a heavyweight bout in Georgia, the field for the RBC Heritage is shaping up to be a good one. The 2020 champ, Webb Simpson, is back to defend the title and will be joined by RBC ambassador and World #1, Dustin Johnson. Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, and last week’s runner up, ol’ Willy Z are just some of the 137-player field joining them.

Though the event is back to its normal slot in the roster, due to Covid-19 cancellations it was played in mid June in 2020 changing a lot of the landscape and ultimately the outcome of the event. Webb got it to -22 to claim the red tartan jacket beating CT Pan’s (-12) winning score in 2019 by 10 strokes. Pan had matched Satoshi Kodaira’s score from the year before while Wesley Bryan (-13/2017) won with one stroke better and Branden Grace (-9) not breaking double digits in 2016. Like any coastal course, the wind will play a factor.

Harbour Town Golf Links Course Breakdown

Fire up the Pete Dye course horses this week. We get another Dye gem, hidden on Hilton Head Island. The 7,100 yard par 71 usually features Bermudagrass course wide but this time of the year the course is overseeded with Poa on the greens and Ryegrass everywhere else. Harbour Town also boasts one of the most picturesque closing holes in the world.

Though it may not come as a shock being a coastal island course, water is in play on all 18 holes. The greens here are quite small, well below tour average in fact they are the 2nd smallest on tour, and are guarded by 54 bunkers. The fairways were expanded on 10 of the holes ahead of the 2020 event and due to the resort nature of the area, the rough is barely longer than the grass on the fairway. Players will face some defense from the weather with wind and rain in the forecast for multiple days of the event.

Looking at some key stats for the week I’ll start with ball striking, approach, and Fantasy National’s oops gained stat. Second shots are always the most important and when the greens are tiny, holding them becomes key. Greens in regulation numbers are well below tour average here and the course is lined by trees and tight dog legs so a strong fairway finding off the tee game will be necessary to set up those approaches. Half of the holes played this week are par 4s between 400 and 500 yards and with just three par 5s, taking advantage of those is a must.

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The Picks & Fades

Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.

$9k+:

DB: Play - Collin Morikawa | Fade - Cameron Smith

Pat: Play - Patrick Cantlay | Fade - Cameron Smith

AC: Play - Corey Conners, Paul Casey, Matthew Fitzpatrick | Fade - Dustin Johnson

Not much needs to be said about these guys. Conners is one of the best ball strikers in the world and is working really hard on his short game which will see a rise into the top of the world rankings sooner rather than later. Paul Casey’s numbers are similar and is 4th in strokes gained total on Dye tracks over the last 50 rounds. Fitz’s Dye records aren’t as great but still 21st in sg: total but 6th in my model including elite par 4 scoring and short game. This will be my second week in a row fading DJ. New driver in the bag and a very bad short game just don’t return the value for the highest priced guy. I have no doubt if DJ wasn’t a RBC guy he’s be sitting at home right now.

$8k:

DB: Play - Abraham Ancer | Fade - Billy Horschel

Pat: Play - Brian Harman | Fade - Billy Horschel

AC: Play - Abraham Ancer, Kevin Na | Fade - Harris English

I really don’t like the $8k range this week and it’s possible I fade them all. Ancer (7th) is the only player in the top 20 of my model and brings a great fairway finding, ball striking, par 4 scoring game the only issue is the ownership. Na has some decent numbers including 5th in 400-450 par 4 scoring, has decent history, and plays Dye tracks really nice. It always pains me to fade the studly, Harris English, but he has been more of a dud since he won the ToC.

$7k:

DB: Play - Kevin Kisner | Fade - Matt Wallace

Pat: Play - Matt Wallace | Fade - Robert Macintyre

AC: Play - Chris Kirk, Cam Cavis, Kevin Streelman | Fade - Robert Macintyre

Kirk is top 10 in almost all stats in 2021 including 1st in 400-450 par 4s. He also has 3 top 10s this year already with only one missed cut. Davis makes his first visit to Hilton Head but has impressed at his Dye stops. He nearly took down the American Express playing three rounds on the Stadium course, and his numbers in 2021 are great being 4th in ball striking and top 10 in t2g and par 5s 500-550. Streelman enters the week top 25 in every category I'm looking at including top 10 in fairways. Streels is also top 20 in strokes gained total on Dye tracks and had back to back t10s in 2018 and 2019. I know Macintyre did well at Augusta but that course suited him much better than this one. His stats are really, really bad.

$6k:

DB: Play - Matthew NeSmith, Doc Redman, Scott Piercy

Pat: Play - Matthew NeSmith, Henrik Norlander, Patton Kizzire

AC: Play - Doug Ghim, Luke List, Rafael Campos

This will be Ghim’s first visit here but the kid’s got game. His Pete Dye numbers are decent, having just 10 rounds but in his last 30 rounds in 2021 he is 12th in fairways, 14th t2g, and 5th in 450-500 yard par 4s. Luke List… well, if List doesn’t lose more than a couple strokes on and around the greens this week he is going to be fire. The ball striking and getting to the green is not a problem. Coming off of them. Well, different story. He did have a 3rd place finish here a couple years ago. Campos is more of a feel play. He was crushed to lip out a putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff. Then followed up with a 34th at Valero but before those two placed third at the Puerto Rico Open a month ago. Poa is his best surface and his par 4 scoring and par 5 scoring are top 20 in the field but this is all about momentum and motivation for me.

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: Joel Dahmen, Bryson DeChambeau, Steve Stricker

* Field is at 135 (132 was original size so no alternates until that number is reached)