Betting Long Shots for the RBC Heritage 2021

What a week we had at The Masters as Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" Betting Card (found only on Twitter & the Nut Hut) hit Hideki at 55-1! That's 9 outright winners this season! Bome! We had Leishman at T5, Reed at T8 and Si Woo at T12 on this card.

This is a much stronger field than we've seen in years past at the RBC Heritage, but I still believe a long shot can take it down as we've seen in years past. If I were advising against a shorter number, I'd go Morikawa at 20/1 on DraftKings and Fitzpatrick at 22/1 on PointsBet.

Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 17 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.

It's a plethora of accuracy types and ball strikers on the card this week as I've thrown the strength of "hits the shit out of it" out the window. I also don't have any 1st timers at Harbour Town as I do think some knowledge around this place, the angles to attack and the places you absolutely can't miss around the greens will be crucial.

Conners, Hoffman & Kisner are my accuracy types destined to pound fairways and hit a ton of greens. Really the question with all of them is short game. Shockingly, Kisner's short game has been sus (as the kids say) and Conners putter has been warming up. This trio has ample experience around Harbour Town, and plenty of win equity.

Kevin Na is my "Risky Biscuit" play of the week as he can be perplexing sometimes as to how much he actually gives a shit. However, I'm sure this event is one he circles on the calendar every year that's really built for his strengths. He's a multiple winner on the PGA TOUR and even coming off a win this season. It's just a decent number for a guy who fits the Harbour Town mold.

Chris Kirk is doing everything well. He'll be a staple on this card for events that reward precision, short game and bermuda greens prowess. His form is hot. He's a PGA TOUR winner, and the value is there at 60/1. Auto bet.

Patton Kizzire leads off the triple digit bombs largely due to his recent form, bermuda expertise and win equity. Patton comes in striping his irons after gaining over 8 SG: Approach at Valero. His short game has been as rocksteady as anyone on the PGA TOUR over the last few years. He's got the goods for Harbour Town.

Hoge, Piercy and Hubbard are massive dart throws that I just can't pass up. Piercy is a multiple time PGA TOUR winner known for his iron play. He's not got the best record with the flatstick, but if he can hit enough of these small greens...he at least won't have to contend with lengthy putts and risk the 3 jack. Hoge just feels close. He's had some stupid good rounds in the last year on the PGA TOUR, but he just hasn't put 4 rounds together. He's 23rd in SG: Approach in this field over the last 24 rounds and the only surface he putts well on is bermuda. He's boom or bust, but this place suits him.

Finally, Mark Hubbard caught my eye early this week, and I can confirm from a birdie on the ground that he's playing well, he's confident and he loves Harbour Town. Bermuda's not his best surface, but he's such a good putter anyway and very solid around the greens. He's a short knocking, fairway finding kind of guy that just needs the irons to click.