DraftKings Picks for the PGA Championship 2021
It’s MAJOR SZN! A stellar field has gathered on Kiawah Island, SC as the best golfer’s on the planet set their sights on Pete Dye’s Ocean Course and the PGA Championship’s Wanamaker Trophy. For us golf addicts and DFS diehards, millions of dollars are up for grabs. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.
After returning to form with a course horse victory a couple weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship, Rory McIlroy arrives as the top priced player this week which may be influenced slightly by his eight-stroke victory at the Ocean Course during the 2012 PGA Championship. Collin Morikawa enters the week as the defending champion collecting the Wanamaker at TPC Harding Park in 2020.
The rest of the field is as stacked as one would expect for a major with all of the current top 50 in the field minus Matthew Wolff who withdrew late last week. World # 1 Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, and Brooks Koepka are just some of the studs headlining this week.
Though there are some exemptions into the event, 20 PGA of America professionals will complete the 156 player field. Unlike regular tour events, the PGA Championship has a top 70 and ties cutline.
The Ocean Course at Kiawah Course Breakdown
As an emergency development for the Ryder Cup, the Ocean course at Kiawah Island was designed by Pete and Alice Dye in 1991 spanning two and a half miles along the Atlantic coast. This will be the second time the Wanamaker trophy will be awarded at the Ocean Course, previously hosting the PGA Championship in 2012.
The monstrously long 7,876 yard par 72 will play as the longest major championship in history with potential to play well over 8,000 yards with some new tee boxes. The course features Seashore paspalum grass from tee to green, extending on to the putting surfaces, with thick 419 bermudagrass overseeded with ryegrass in the rough cut to 3.5”. Water is in play on about half the holes with waste area and about 30 acres of sand throughout the course.
The boys brought regular PGA Tour caddie, Kyle Peters, on the pod this week for some boots on the ground insight. Make sure to check that out before constructing your lineups this week. One tidbit I will share is that these are the best paspalum greens on tour. They are rolling true and don’t have to worry about grain. Just find the slope!
The greens will be fast, firm, large and flat. Putting and specifically three putt avoidance will be a big factor, but getting to the green and making sure they hold will be an issue. Most of the greens are raised and feature some nasty runoffs. Around the green stats are worth a look.
Coming off the tee, length will certainly be an advantage but position and fairways are worth sacrificing a few yards in driving distance. Find the guys that have all three weapons. Members of Fantasy National Golf Club can take advantage of two key stats; Opps Gained and Good Drives. Both stats will give you an idea who’s making greens in regulation with sub 15 feet scoring opportunities. It's unlikely birdies will be scored in bunches, quite unlike last week, especially if the coastal wind kicks up. Bogey avoidance will be important.
If you are not yet a member, join the Tour Junkies crew and some brilliant minds in Goalby’s Nut Hut. The Nut Hut is a discord chat with tons of insight, caddie news, banter, trash talk and most of all a collection of golf addicts that have won more than $3 million since the restart. Click the banner below to sign up!
The Picks & Fades
Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.
$9k+:
DB: Play - Justin Thomas | Fade - Collin Morikawa
Pat: Play - Viktor Hovland | Fade - Bryson DeChambeau
AC: Play - Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland | Fade - Dustin Johnson
Any chance I get to play JT it is pretty much automatic. The world #2 could become #1 this week and other than a few more putts made and a couple more fairways there isn’t anything more I want from a golfer. As far as ball striking goes, Morikawa has been numero uno over the last six months. The short game is a little worrisome but if the irons are on he should have a ton of close opportunities and the paspalum should help. Very similar story for Hovland. Clean up from around the green and he will contend. I'm fading DJ once again. There is just too much red. All the guys up here are playable but DJ has the least value for me.
$8k:
DB: Play - Cameron Smith | Fade - Sungjae Im
Pat: Play - Daniel Berger | Fade - Cameron Smith
AC: Play - Daniel Berger, Matthew Fitzpatrick | Fade - Tommy Fleetwood
A case could be made for all the guys in the 8k range, and we should expect nothing less from this field. Running through my models I landed on Berger and Fitz but an honorable mention to Willy Z as Berger’s ownership is pretty high. Berger’s numbers in 2021 are just so good. The top 10s in 200+ approaches, good drives, and GIR% are quite appealing. Fitz was obviously disappointing last week but when a cut is -6 I’m not too concerned. Bogey avoidance, fairways, and putting is Fitz’s game. I don’t feel too good fading anyone specifically here but Fleetwood and Rose certainly rate out the worst. Specifically Tommy’s 200+ proximity, fairways and opps gained are not enticing.
$7k:
DB: Play - Paul Casey | Fade - Adam Scott
Pat: Play - Abraham Ancer | Fade - Marc Leishman
AC: Play - Abraham Ancer, Corey Conners, Matt Wallace | Fade - Sergio Garcia
Full disclosure, I created a whole lineup from the 7k range and it does not lack any win equity. There are some studs in here and I never even included Paul Casey, Sam Burns, or Jason Kokrak as my favorite plays but the truth is, it’s super close down here between half a dozen guys. I’ll keep riding Ancer and Conners because the value just keeps pouring out of these two. Conners didn’t quite pop at the Wells Fargo but it was a long string of events so it was nice to see him take a week off. If both men can just have neutral or better around the green weeks, LOOK OUT! Going to keep riding Wallace as well. He has two T6s or better and a T18 in recent events and he shows up when the difficulty elevates. It won’t come as a surprise to see baby bunker tantrum as a fade here. I have been enjoying his recent form and all the missed cuts along with it.
$6k:
DB: Play - Stewart Cink, C-Bez,
Pat: Play - Sam Horsfield, Joel Dahmen, Antoine Rozner
AC: Play - Cameron Davis, C-Bez, Brendan Steele
THE INS & OUTS
OUT: Vijay Singh
IN: Wyndham Clark
Field set at 156