Betting Long Shots for the PGA Championship 2021

Handcuffed somewhat by my own rule of not betting anyone shorter than 25/1, this card is made up by living in the middle plus some bomb long shots that are proven winners. It's a lengthy card, but wanting some exposure to those long shots at the bottom was just something I had to have. Everyone on this card has won either a European Tour event or PGA TOUR event with Finau's win being the highly documented alternate event in Puerto Rico. There's not a player on the card that lacks true win equity at an event like this, and with the exception of maybe the hot headed Si Woo Kim...they've all demonstrated patience in adversity and a grinder mentality.

Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 9 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article, alone, is now down 3 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.

Reed and Finau top out the card with Morikawa (33/1 on PointsBet) being my final scratch from the card. Both are patient players with chops in majors. Reed is a known grinder and able to get up and down from anywhere, but Finau's SG: ATG game is sneaky good over the long and short term. If Dufner, Jimmy Walker and Keegan Bradley can have breakout victories at PGA Championships...then Tony Finau can certainly shut up all the haters here.

Casey, Fitz and Conners round out the middle of the card and I love all 3 this week. Conners is one of 2 players on this card that suck ass at scrambling (Joel Dahmen the other), but as one of the best ball strikers in the world, he doesn't usually have to scramble. Fitz and Casey fit the grindy, Euro stereotype from the 2012 leaderboard and don't forget Casey nearly won the PGA last year at Harding Park. I just love Casey's ball striking and ability to adjust in any conditions.

I put Harman, Wallace and our sweet prince Si Woo Kim in the same category. I think Si Woo is grossly over priced in the outright market. I think he should be in the Harman range with his record on Pete Dye tracks, ability to win a massive event in The Players, course fit and the fact he just won in late January at The Players. I love Wallace's recent form. He was here early last week getting in a ton of reps on the course. Harman is a late add...he's been so good lately, including a T3 at The Players. He's probably the best SG: ATG guy in the entire field both in the short and long term. Watch out for Harman this week.

Finally, Matt Jones and Joel Dahmen are just 2 bombs that I find worth splooging a partial unit on. They're the 2 most recent PGA TOUR winners on this entire betting card. Jones won the Honda (tough, coastal track), and Joel won at Corales (paspalum greens, coastal track). Jones is another elite scrambler, and checks the box playing in windy conditions. I also love him in the Top 20 markets at 5/1. Joel is confident, playing well, accurate off the tee, good with his long irons and the word on the street is that he loves these pure paspalum greens. 350/1 is Y-UGE for Joel.