Outright Bets for The PGA Championship 2022
The Betting Approach for The PGA Championship 2022
It's time to fire on some long shot outright bets for the season's 2nd major championship at Southern Hills for the PGA Championship. It's been a tidal wave of content this week from everyone, including us. I've consumed a ton of it and researched so much I've developed stage 3 carpal tunnel in both wrists. I've waded through it all and come out with 9 outright long shots that I think have a chance to grab the victory come late Sunday afternoon.
The books are projecting the winning score at around -8.5. I find that number just a shade high given the wind predictions for the first 3 days, but those controlling the set up at Southern Hills can seemingly do whatever they want with technology under all the greens that can make them firmer or slow them down, plus the variety of options they have for tee placement and overall yardage. Either way, I'm looking for guys that can grind, that have patience, have a solid track record in major championships, and arrive in form when it comes to their iron play and scrambling abilities.
More Intel on Southern Hills Country Club
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Southern Hills will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). Or, you can watch this video on our YouTube channel where I share stats, trends, player quotes and more about the golf course in just 15 minutes. We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The PGA Championship 2022
We didn't make it 2 in a row for the Byron as me and nobody (including KH Lee's mom) had the defending champ winning the Byron, but we're still up 8 units on the PGA TOUR season strictly betting outrights at 25/1 or longer.
I'm certainly playing ballsy this week as only 1 of my 9 selections has won a major championship (Woodland). But, I feel like I've got some killers in there that don't give a shit. Plus, the PGA Championship has a history of 1st time major championship winners, and plenty random ones at that. I've got a heavy lean on distance and iron play. I'm also noticeably invested in the AM/PM wave as Berger and Niemann are the only 2 with PM tee times on Thursday. Short game is something else I factored in heavily, despite the Zalatoris play, and if the short game isn't great, I'm riding with them only if their current iron play is blue flame hot.
Burns & McIntyre were 2 names I dove deep on in the Top 20s and Sleepers video this week on our YouTube channel. I even opened up Fantasy National and screen shared the things I liked about them both. But ultimately, the killer instincts and course fit for Burns was too attractive to pass up at 60/1.
Willy Z's tee to green game and early stage career affinity for tough courses and majors makes him a lock at 41/1. He likely stayed outside the 30/1 range only because of the MC last week at the Byron. It was also a home game (possible distractions) and -26 won. I like Willy Z more in tournaments where you don't have to make a bunch of putts outside of 6' for birdie. He'll be better in a low scoring affair.
Niemann flights it with the best of them, and he comes in hot in almost every facet of his game. He's an underrated scrambler, and the 2x PGA TOUR winner seems ready to take down his 1st big one.
Daniel Berger gets the nod here due to his iron play and especially his bermuda chipping ability that even Spieth remarked on last week when I asked him about it at the Byron. His lack of recent play and maybe a little nagging injury concern may be the only reason why he's as long as 66/1, but I'll take the gamble that he's fine and enjoys resting on his boat.
It's tough to ignore a guy that's now won 4x on the PGA TOUR and 3x in the last 15 months. Homa's ability to drive it long and straight paired with his hot irons should fair well at Southern Hills. The scrambling is a concern, but hopefully he's focused and practicing a ton on the short game leading up to Thursday.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!