The Power Fade: 2023 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
The Approach to fading big names for the 2023 pga championship
What’s going on TJ Nation! Allen Klutts here with another addition of The Power Fade: The Fades 8k and Above that will help you smash your GPP's.
Fresh off the heels of the Byron Nelson which produced Jason Day's first win in five years, we head to Oak Hill in Rochester, NY for the season's second major.
Oak Hill presents itself as a true test of a player's whole skill set. A course that has seen changes since Jason Dufner won in 2013, we now have a bombers track that is similar to the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
Without further adieu, let's get into the Power Fades!
Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500)
Tyrrell Hatton kicks off our Power Fades for the week at $8,500.
I am well aware that Hatton is coming off of T5 finish at the Byron Nelson, but this week is a different animal. A major championship field with an interesting combination of stats and ownership makes the Englishman my first pivotal fade.
Why The Fade Works:
As I investigate the case of Tyrrell Hatton, there is some interesting metrics in the key stats that support the fade.
Driving Distance will be talked up this week. Oak Hill playing as a 7,400 yard par 70 can certainly point people in this direction. My main concern however is on second shot approach.
Hatton ranks poorly in Strokes Gained Approach (72nd), Greens in Regulation Gained (79th), and Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (87th). Oak Hill will be a hit the green at all costs type of tournament.
Although at face value Hatton should do well in this type of "grind and grit your teeth" environment, the stats do not bear this out. Throw in a 95th in Bogey Avoidance, and the Englishman may be throwing a temper tantrum on the East Course this week.
Will there be bogey's this week, unquestionably yes. However ranking that poorly in a pivotable scoring stat leaves us wondering if the steam on Hatton will scald us come Sunday. I will prefer to pivot elsewhere.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000)
A sentimental favorite among many in the DFS streets, Tommy Lad comes in as my second Power Fade this week.
Why The Fade Works:
Fleetwood comes in as a bargain on DraftKings at $8,000. I am of the belief that with this cheap price will come ownership. Considering many builds may start Rahm or Scheffler then try to squeeze in a JT, Tommy becomes a solid third option.
I have some questions on the Englishman however. First of all, his win equity is non-existent on American soil. I understand that Tommy isn't required to win to meet value, but considering the stats and comp course history, can he even T20?.
Fleetwood ranks 95th in Strokes Gained Approach, 91st in Greens in Reg Gained, and 78th in Opportunities Gained. With my belief that you will still need stellar second shot play to succeed at Oak Hill, this is troubling.
Likewise with Hatton, struggling to hit Greens in Reg this week can be a recipe for disaster. Oak Hill will not be your average get up and down from a missed green. Furthermore, factor in a comp course of Winged Foot, where Fleetwood finished an uninspiring 50th in 2020. Consequently I begin to believe we can pivot off the ownership and gain leverage on the field.
That's it folks for this week's edition of the Power Fade! I will return to you next week for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial.
Until then Be Bold, Be Brave, and Let's ride the Power Fade!
“ Will there be bogey's this week, unquestionably yes. However ranking that poorly in a pivotable scoring stat leaves us wondering if the steam on Hatton will scald us come Sunday. I will prefer to pivot elsewhere." Â
— AK
Meet the Author:
Allen Klutts
A long time Tour Junkies fan and Nut Hut Member, Allen has always been an enthusiastic PGA DFS player and is looking to bring that passion to his writing. A frequent participant on the Wednesday Night Live Stage Chat, who DB once compared to Norm from the TV show "Cheers" for always kicking off the live stage segment, Allen lives in Ann Arbor, Michigan with his wife and two year old son.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.