Betting Outrights for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2022
The Betting Approach for The AT&T Pro Am 2022
Can we make it 3 winners in a row this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Pebble Beach for the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am? Swafford at 250/1, followed by List at 75/1...damn I'm good. Let's get it!
The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -19.5. Yet another week of seemingly perfect scoring conditions are on deck with very little wind in the forecast for Pebble. The only defense is wind, and even with this weaker field, I could see the winning total getting over the 19.5 number.
More Intel on Pebble Beach
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how the 3 courses on rotation at Pebble Beach will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2022
The wild swings of betting longshot outright winners in golf...2 weeks ago, I was down 45 units on the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season. Today, after the big Swafford hit and finally getting the Luke List win last week at 75/1, I'm up 37.5 units on the season. This shit ain't for you highly emotional, triggerable softies (cough Pat cough) that can't handle wild swings. Basically, if you enjoy the swings in the cryptocurrency world, then you'll love this shit.
This field strength is equivalent to the Fortinet back in September according to OWGR. With Zalatoris having to WD with COVID, it just leaves a lot to be desired at the top of the board. In 4 events in 2022, we've not had one of the top 5 names at the top of the board come through and win. Remember when Rahm and Cantlay had a 43% implied odds chance to win the Amex...?
In addition, Pebble has produced some long shot winners in the last 5 years with Nick Taylor at 160/1, Ted Potter Jr at 500/1 and Vaughn Taylor at 300/1. The lack of strength in the field, the winning score approaching the 20s, the variables of 3 courses, amatuers, and 6 hour rounds all lead me to let my nuts hang out this week in terms of my selections.
It just feels like one of those weeks where I want a lot of "outs" and I'll take my chance in fading guys like Cantlay, Berger, Day, McNealy (oh my heart), Rose, Power, and Tringale. This is the BIG BALLS betting card people!
I went with a slew of fairway finding ball strikers this week as I'm giving very little weight to how far a guy can hit it. You've got to play these 3 courses from the fairway, you've got to be able to putt on POA, and I want some flash of form in 2022. All of these guys check the experience at Pebble Beach box as well, with the exception of PGA TOUR Rookie, Greyson Sigg. However, Sigg has some experience at Pebble Beach where he won an event as an amatuer.
All of these guys have won on the PGA TOUR with the exception of McCarthy, Putnam, Sigg and Nesmith but they've all shown up at Pebble before and fit the profile of success here.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!