AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am 2021 Betting Card

It was a tough week for DB's betting card as Matthew NeSmith at 300/1 was our best finisher (T7). However...if you're not in the Nut Hut or following on Twitter, then you're missing "Pat's Not That Anyone Really Cares Betting Card" each week where he successfully hit Brooks at 55/1 last week (and Hovland at the OHL in November). So all in all, team TJ has picked 2 winners in the first 5 events of 2021. Get amongst it (nod to Colt Knost)! The Big Balls Betting Card is now down 8 units since the beginning of this season.

I'll write up reasons and lock in bets with dollar amounts on Wednesday after tee times/weather wave stuff shakes out. But, here are the names grabbing my attention early on and lines I'm paying attention to. There has been a ton of line shake up with DJ WD'ing among others. This looks to be one of those Pebble Beach years where a long shot can come up and win. Keep in mind the defending champ Nick Taylor, won at 160/1, Ted Potter Jr. has won here at 500/1 and Vaughn Taylor won at 300/1.

***ADDED WEDNESDAY*** - So, there is for sure a weather/course advantage as of Wednesday at 3pmET. I won't go into detail here, but we'll be talking about it a lot in the Nut Hut today and tomorrow morning as well an extensive write up about it in today's Chalk Bomb email. I eliminated the 3 names due to their draw, value and overall approach to the card. You'll notice this week's card is smaller and tighter than last week. I do think there's a ton of variance at Pebble this week, but I still think conditions are going to be tougher than usual. Therefore, I give an edge to grinders, proven contenders and high performers in the wind.

I don't feel as good about Davis as I usually do, but it's a FOMO bet. He's got the worse side of the draw in my opinion and he hasn't done much at Pebble in 3 attempts.

I don't love Homa's draw either, but he loves poa and gains strokes in windy conditions. He's coming of a T14 and T10 in his last 2 tries at Pebble. He's confident and trending. He's got real win equity.

Henrik Norlander is probably my favorite bet on the board. He's got the right weather draw, he's playing great, his game suits Pebble. Don't overthink it.

I came on to Matt Jones today after seeing his weather draw is favorable, he putts well on poa and plays well in the wind. His form is trending nicely.

Alex Noren is a gut feeling at a good number. He's on the wrong side of the draw, but I like the Euro, grinder, hit it well in the wind vibe he brings.

It's finally Joel Dahmen week. We're pulling the trigger. He likes Pebble and he's swinging it well. Ignore the recent performances. He hates those courses.

Mark Hubbard got engaged on the 18th green at Pebble. He's played these 2 courses "40 to 50 times" according to an interview. He's playing well coming off a T30 at WMPO where he shot -8 in round 1. Plus he's got the good draw.

Rafa Cabrera Bello is Alex Noren, but with a good weather draw and a huge triple digit number in a shitty field.

JB Holmes loves poa like Macklemore loves carbs (see recent PGA TOUR interview with him). He gains strokes in the wind. He has five top 15s here since 2010. It's just such a big number considering this field and the importance of course knowledge/history at Pebble.