Ownership Review | AT&T Byron Nelson 2022
Ah, the old saying "hindsight is 20/20" has now been turned into an official series. The Ownership Review pieces will come out every Monday by yours truly, and will simply be a recap of the overowned vs. underowned of the week's event. I'll also touch a little on the difference in ownership between the lower stakes contests vs. the higher stakes (DFS sharps) contests. Hopefully in turn, over time, we'll get a better feel on what defines good chalk, and what chalk the DFS pros are running away from.
The Good
Justin Thomas ($10,600) | ~27.9%
This was not a great week for the chalk (we'll get into an overall review later), and Justin Thomas finishing T5 as the second highest owned player is probably the highlight.
JT was hovering for most of the week, but couldn't get "JT-hot" on Sunday, cruising to a final round 67 to finish in the top-5. With scores of 61, 62, 63 and a smattering of others, his 67 was roughly course average for the day.
Nonetheless, it was a strong finish heading into the week of the only major that Thomas has ever won, the PGA Championship.
The Bad
Will Zalatoris ($9,400) | ~34%
Will Zalatoris was the highest owned player in the field across all DFS contests by about 5%. This is a shocking number in an event that was littered with star players at the top of the board. On paper, it seemed as though Willy Z may have been underpriced, but when you look at an event that would turn into a putting contest, should we have been surprised to see him struggle?
Zalatoris was solid tee to green for the two days he played, he simply couldn't buy a putt. But, this is something we should have expected, right? I mean, putting is something Zalatoris always struggles with, unless he's in Augusta, Georgia. Even still, it was shocking to see the putter prevent him from even making the cut.
The chalk hurt the sharps even more than the lower-stakes players, as Zalatoris was 38.8% in the $3,180 19th Hole contest, and 43.9% owned in the $200 Driver SE contest. The pros were adament this was a Zalatoris week. Golf DFS is hard.
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Sam Burns ($9,500) | ~27.2%
The $9k range was looking extremely bleak until Xander Schauffele went from +3 thru 23 holes (almost a guaranteed MC) to posting -23 early on Sunday and giving the contenders a number to look at, eventually finishing T5.
Sam Burns was a part of the disappointing $9k players as he clocked in as the 3rd highest owned player, missing the cut on the number along with Zalatoris. Burns, however, did not look good tee to green this week, losing an uncharacteristic 1.8 strokes on approach en route to his second MC in a row.
Us VS The High Rollers
Chalk BOMBED this week as 2 of the top 3 owned players missed the cut; and only 1 of the top 13 highest owned finished in the top-10.
The Review
The chalk did not win here. I had a feeling we could chalk (for lack of a better word) the last two weeks up as outliers as the fields were so extremely top-heavy. This was a more rounded field, and thus, being different paid off. I was extremely high on the likes of Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and Joaquin Niemann this week, but unfortunately, I was CT Pan'd so I didn't make a profit (although I nearly cashed in the $33 SE with a goose egg which was impressive to me).
KH Lee, the champion, came in at just 3.4% ownership across all DFS contests, including just 1.5% in the $3,180 contest, which was warranted given his poor play of late. However, mental note, always play KH Lee at TPC Craig Ranch (he's -51 in 8 rounds played and the back-to-back champ). Spieth finished runner-up after leaving 135 strokes on the green (estimated), and was just 14.1% owned. The course and recent form screamed Jordan Spieth this week so I'm surprised he wasn't one of the higher owned players, but Spieth is a needle and there's a lot of people that don't like watching him (weirdos).
The two players that finished T3 this week were also low-owned guys in Hideki Matsuyama (9.1%) and Sebastian Munoz (12.5%). Being different paid off this week, and I think it will next week too!
Here is a little breakdown of the ownership differences between the $5 Drive the Green and the $3,180 19th Hole contests (data provided by Fantasy Labs):
[Player ($5 / $3,180)]
Will Zalatoris (26.3% / 38.8%)
Maverick McNealy (19.4% / 32.8%)
Keith Mitchell (12.6% / 22.4%)
Seamus Power (14.3% / 22.4%)
Patton Kizzire (13.0% / 19.4%)
Hideki Matsuyama (11.4% / 6.7%)
Dustin Johnson (10.9% / 6.7%)
Don't forget to check out my Pivot Point series every Wednesday to see how to *properly* avoid the chalk each week! After you read that, or before, check out the Tour Junkies Youtube page, as they're producing video content like you wouldn't believe!