The Rundown: 2023 Open Championship
I hesitate to say this as a Georgia native, but arguably the greatest week in golf has arrived. I'll probably change my mind come April like I do every year, but there's something about the original major that just hits different... maybe it's all the Guinness and bagpipes. Last week's Scottish Open got everyone fully in the mood with Rory McIlroy's epic close-out at the Renaissance Club, and this week at Hoylake should be even better. The famed layout brings out the best from the world's greatest golfers: Rory, Tiger Woods, Bobby Jones, Walter Hagen - all of them have hoisted the Claret Jug at Royal Liverpool. But who will add their name to the sterling silver this year? That's what we're going to try and find out. So grab a pint and settle in – here's everything you need to know to cash some tickets at the final major of 2023.
course notes & quotes
Known interchangeably across the world as both 'Hoylake' and its full name of Royal Liverpool Golf Club, the legendary Merseyside links course is a founding father of the game of golf. Founded in 1869, the coastal gem was the inaugural site of both the Amateur Championship and the English Amateur and has hosted golf's original major 12 times in its 154-year history.
The most recent of which came in 2014 when McIlroy held off Rickie Fowler and Sergio Garcia to capture his third major title. Some might also recall Tiger's domination in 2006 when he famously picked apart the course with precision while pulling driver just once on his way to a win. But the Royal Liverpool that will face the 150+ players in the field this week looks a lot different than it did nine years ago. For starters, the layout has been stretched to a 7,383-yard par-71 by converting the par-5 10th into a long par 4. There's also the addition of a brand new 17th hole – a tricky little 130-yard par-3, but despite the shortened 17th, the home stretch this week at Royal Liverpool is the longest back nine in Open Championship history at 3,822 yards coming in.
Perhaps the most notable feature of Royal Liverpool is the rare use of 'internal out-of-bounds'. A low stone wall marking the OB territory comes dangerously into play on multiple holes, including the par-5 18th, where everything from eagle to triple is possible.
The par-5s are gettable for the most part, and based on results from '06 and '14, it will be important for these guys to cash in on those birdie opportunities.
"The par-5s are going to be crucial," McIlroy said ahead of his first round at Royal Liverpool in 2014. "You've got to be slightly aggressive off the tees here. There are few birdie opportunities on this course, and you want to try to make as many birdies as you can on those holes."
Like most of the legendary links, Royal Liverpool needs some help from mother nature to keep these pros from going low. If the winds pick up and dry out these fairways, we'll see plenty of irons off the tee and more conservative strategies. But with rain early in the week and expected wind speeds mostly in the single digits, it doesn't look like we'll get the 'biscuit brown' fairways we love to see across the pond. That could certainly change before Thursday morning, so keep an eye on the forecast as the week goes on and the tee times come out.
GOING FOR GLORY
“The par-5s are going to be crucial. You've got to be slightly aggressive off the tees here. There are few birdie opportunities on this course, and you want to try to make as many birdies as you can on those holes.”
— 2014 Open Champion Rory McIlroy
Course history
While we have seen Royal Liverpool in action twice in relatively recent memory, ShotLink data wasn't available for the '06 and '14 Opens, so we're going into this week a bit blind from a stats standpoint. While I could pull some numbers from other recent Open Championships, I thought instead I'd break the mold and try a little "Winning Trends" for the first time in this column. Don't get used to it though, because I'm not sure I want to sign up for this much research every week.
Value of Experience
Compared to most PGA TOUR golf, links golf is more like a deceptive puzzle than a test of brute force. You need patience and strategy to pick the lock on the Claret Jug, but most players these days are used to breaking the door down. As a result, Open Champions tend to be both older and more experienced with this type of golf. Of the last 11 winners dating back to Darren Clarke in 2011, all but Collin Morikawa had at least four previous Open appearances and at least one finish of T20 or better. Taking it a step further, all but the last two champions, Cam Smith and Morikawa, had a previous Open finish of T10 or better. While the trend has been bucked as of late, there is certainly something to be said for age before beauty at the Open.
Recency Bias
Like the other majors, champions at the Open rarely come out of thin air. Since 2011, only three winners opened at odds longer than 45/1. Recent form on both the PGA and DP World Tours as well as the majors provides a strong indicator of who will contend at the Open. Of the last 11 winners, all but Ernie Els (2012) won an event earlier in the same year, and all but Clarke posted a T25 or better in one of the earlier majors. Even better, 7/11 had a top ten in another major prior to winning the Open in the same year. There's also something to be said for playing well at the Scottish Open the week prior, as seven of the last 11 made the cut at the Scottish before going on to win the next week. Phil Mickelson famously went back-to-back at Castle Stuart and Muirfield in 2013, something McIlroy will hope to replicate this week.
Trending Players
With all of that said, who in this year's field actually fits these trends? Looking more closely at recent form, only five players accomplished all the criteria of (1) Making the cut at the Scottish, (2) T10 in a major this year, and (3) Winning a PGA/DPWT event earlier this year. They are Wyndham Clark, Rickie Fowler, Viktor Hovland, Kurt Kitayama and Scottie Scheffler. But I think a clearer picture is painted with a trend that combines both recent performance and Open Championship experience. If you combine (1) Prior Open T10, (2) At least four prior Open starts, (3) T10 in a prior major that year, and (4) Win earlier this year (including LIV), there are seven players that meet all four trends and 10 that meet at least three of them. The four-for-four group features Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Cam Smith, and the players with 3/4 are Patrick Cantlay, Jason Day, Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrell Hatton, Phil Mickelson, Patrick Reed, Scheffler and Jordan Spieth.
Betting picks & plays
Now that tee times are out, a closer look at the weather forecast shows very little difference between the morning and afternoon waves through the first two rounds. As a result, I'm sticking with who I liked going into the week regardless of when they go off Thursday. I'll lay out a few of those here, but drop me a follow on Twitter and Instagram for the full card. As always, be sure to check out the Tour Junkies Blog for more picks and insight from the rest of the gang, including the Let's Go Juicin' column from our guy Vince who has been making money all season.
Viktor Hovland (+2200, T10: +230)
I'm skipping down the board because there's no reason to explain what everybody already knows about the favorites. I'll certainly have a slice of Rory this week and likely Scheffler too, even though I'm not crazy about betting 7/1 favorites. That's why my eye was drawn first to Vik at 22/1. He's finished inside the top 20 in every major this year including the runner-up at Oak Hill, and he's coming off a solid if unspectacular T25 at the Scottish last week where the big takeaway was his .66 strokes gained around the green. He's actually solved his short game woes at every major this year, adding another weapon to what is already a top-3 ball-striker in the world. He's doesn't have as much Open experience as many of the other favorites, but what little he has is impressive with a T12 in 2021 and a T4 last year at St. Andrews.
Tommy Fleetwood (+2800, T10: +250)
There are so many guys in this mid-range that I'm itching to pull the trigger on. For any office pools, I'd recommend loading up on the likes of Spieth, Hatton, Rickie and DJ in this middle tier, but when it comes to my personal favorite, there's only one choice. Fleetwood rewarded our trust last week with a T6 at the Scottish, continuing his fine career on links courses. He's posted two top fives and a T12 at the Open going back to 2018, so I don't put too much stock in his MC last time at Hoylake in 2014 in what was his first-ever major appearance. His current form is impeccable as well, as only he and Koepka are gaining at least .35 strokes across every SG category this season. Not to mention he grew up less than an hour up the coast from Hoylake, so this will be a true home game for the Englishman.
Tournament Matchups
Getting a little creative with the card this week by diversifying with a few matchup plays on guys I like a lot, just not enough to pick them to win.
Finau -130 v Min Woo Lee: Experience is important at the Open, and Finau has a clear edge here. He's never finished worse than T28 at the Open and has a pair of top 10s as well. Compare that to Lee's record of T21 and a MC in just two Open starts, and I'll lay the juice with Big Tone all day.
Tom Kim +100 v Cameron Young: I know Young finished runner-up at the Old Course last year, but nothing we've seen in the last six months suggests he should be favored over Tom Kim this week. Other than a T6 in a shrimpy field at the John Deere, Young hasn't posted anything better than a T32 since the Masters. Kim on the other hand is coming off two recent top 10s at the US Open and last week's Scottish Open, and his accuracy off the tee should give him an edge at Hoylake over the longer but erratic Young.
Viktor Hovland +170 v Xander Schauffele & Patrick Cantlay: With all three at +170 in this 3-ball, give me the guy who actually has a chance to hoist the trophy after four days. The game and skill is pretty similar across this group, but only Hovland has shown the ability to produce in big moments at the majors in recent memory.
Meet the Author:
Nate Moore
A Georgia native, proud UGA alum and former media guy for Augusta National, the only thing Nate Moore loves more than the Peach State is a Top-20 parlay. Nate is a golf-obsessed sportswriter/journalist who brings his experience in the golf industry to the Tour Junkies brand.
Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and commentary in this post belong to its author and do not necessarily represent the Tour Junkies as a whole.