Betting Long Shots for The Northern Trust 2021
The Betting Approach for The Northern Trust 2021
Welp. Despite half the damn field being in a playoff last week...we had none of those bastards! Streelman was in the playoff before f'ing his sister on the last damn hole to miss it by a shot. But...I'm glad our boy Kisner got it done. Praise God baby!
We're moving on to one of the strongest fields of the year as the first FedEx Cup playoff event kicks off at Liberty National Golf Club for The Northern Trust. With nearly every single one of the best players in the world sending it this week, you gotta pick your spots and be ok knowing you can't play them all. There's plenty of win equity on the betting board in those mid ranges since the field is so strong, so as hard as it is to not bet the big studs up top...that's why our betting nuts drag the ground people! LFG!
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Liberty National will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
"Where can I legally place bets like this?"
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Long Shot Outright Bets for The Northern Trust 2021
The sportsbooks have the winning score line around -14.5. Patrick Reed won here in 2019 at -16. If you can find a place to bet the over on that winning score total, then I would pound that. This course is soft AF right now and the field is even stronger than it was in 2019. The wind doesn't appear to be much of a factor, and the wind is the only real defense on Liberty National. I think the winning score gets to -17.
I'm making picks based on very recent form coming in, key stats, and my gut this week for The Northern Trust. F course history here. A sample size of 1 is all we really have to on at Liberty National from back in 2019. 2009 and 2013 editions were too long ago and prior to some renovations. And don't give me the President's Cup of 2017 line either...match play and stroke play are completely different. The golf course was set up different for match play and the players approach to the round is completely different. I couldn't care less about anyone's experience at Liberty National or lack thereof.
This golf course will require a complete tee to green game along with some nice putting on bentgrass. I want guys coming in very red hot and ready to peak for the playoffs. I'm looking at stats over the last 12 rounds according to Fantasy National. I don't think you have to be a bomber to win here either. It comes down to attacking some of the smallest greens on the PGA TOUR with your approach shots, getting up and down when you miss (bc you are going to miss), capitalizing on your birdie looks and making par on some of these tougher holes. The End.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 11 outright winners all over 25/1 and 3 first round leaders at 125/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card (posted on the Nut Hut and on Twitter). This article is now up 51 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
Since I'm committed to 25/1 or longer on this card, I'm basically pounding the next range and then the bombs! I'm in absolute love with Berger this week. Berger, Garcia and Na are my 3 favorites on the card. I've really warmed up on Garcia this week. I love the total driving and approach play. Plus, on smaller greens, we'll see less 3 putts from the shitty putters. This is a tough event to get a winner past 25/1, but we're damn sure gonna try!
Outright Winner
Berger 30/1 PointsBet $10
Scheffler 33/1 PointsBet $10
Matsuyama 40/1 DraftKings $8
English 40/1 PointsBet $7
Garcia 90/1 PointsBet $5
Na 100/1 PointsBet $3
Streelman 100/1 DraftKings $3
Wolff 150/1 PointsBet $2
McNealy 150/1 DraftKings $2