Outright Bets for The Mexico Open 2024
The Betting Approach for The Mexico Open 2024
The PGA TOUR takes it south of the border to the coast of Mexico at Vidanta Vallarta for The Mexico Open 2024. It's a full field with a cut and I'm giddy to sweat some mules! It's not a star-studded field, but the cash spends the same people!
The weather looks pretty close to perfect all week. It's been a little breezy in the afternoons here the last 2 years, but not this week. Remember, this event has been played in April since inception 2 years ago. The guys on the ground have mentioned the conditions are much softer this time of year. We're going to get zero wind, no rain, soft fairways, and softer greens than in previous years.
And with that, I was ready to fire early on some outrights. The guys with asterisks by their numbers were pounded Monday morning and discussed on the Betting Podcast. The numbers have steamed a good bit on those boys. Always nice to start Thursday with some closing line value in my opinion.
More Intel on Vidanta Vallarta
We've got plenty of caddie friends on site this week to help us understand how this golf course is playing. I'll also be paying close attention to the player quotes throughout the week and dropping them in the Nut Hut Discord.
I'm also back to doing my weekly course breakdown videos that drop on Sunday afternoons. I'll be discussing course insights, key stats, and sharing my screen for an early look at the Bet The Number model. Check out this week's video if you'd like more on Vidanta Vallarta.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Research, #Cheat-Sheets, or #Caddie-Info channels this week...you're missing a TON of information.
The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 14/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units, the 2021-2022 season up 26 units and the 2022-2023 season down 10 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
So for the last 4 PGA TOUR seasons, this article is up 67 units. However, the landscape of the PGA TOUR has changed, and the winners have been shorter over the last 2 years. For that reason, I've decided to start the 2024 season at a 20/1 minimum instead of 25/1.
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Mexico Open 2024
I don't buy this event being a favorites only deal. Especially with the mild weather, field-leveling paspallum greens, and likely winning score getting to the low 20 under ranger -- I just think we're due for a bomb at this tournament. Oh yea...and Jon Rahm's not here anymore.
Nobody on the card is a short hitter. Perez may be the shortest, but still averaged over 300 yards on the DPWT last year. They're all over 170mph average ball speed off the tee. This course is already long, and the soft conditions will make it even more important to hammer it off the tee.
Remember, plenty of guys have littered the top 15 of The Mexico Open leaderboards the last 2 years despite having arrived in sub par form. Course fit is more important in my mind than recent form, especially on if their poor form consists of places like Pebble Beach, Sony, PGA West, etc. It's all about bombs off the tee, hitting greens with long irons, and making putts on these slow paspallum putting greens.
3 of the top 50 toughest holes on the PGA TOUR were from this course last year. All 3 have long iron approaches. If the longer hitters are hitting shorter clubs with higher lofts on those holes, they'll avoid the big numbers on the difficult holes. Then...time to eat on the par 5s for the big boys.
I'm spending 5.8 units to win between 35 units with a hit. We're down 28.9 on the PGA TOUR season (up 33 on the LIV Golf season), but most everyone is down big for the year.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
