Betting Outrights for The Mexico Open 2022
The Betting Approach for The Mexico Open 2022
I just can't tell you all how pissed I am with short numbers winning golf tournaments on the PGA TOUR. I've had enough. Don't they know I'm out here slangin my betting sack all over the interwebs! Anyway, the PGA TOUR kicks off a brand new event in The Mexico Open from Vidanta Vallarta and Jon Rahm better not F'ing win!
The books are projecting the winning score at around -21.5. The wind is the only thing that will suppress scoring at Vidanta Vallarta, and there appears to be very little wind throughout the tournament. This place is long with some very lengthy par 4s and some par 5s that will be three shot holes for the field, but it's still going to be a highly variable birdie bonanza. Typically, that means we can get some long shot, random winner that gets hot on the greens.
More Intel on Vidanta Vallarta
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how Vidanta Vallarta will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Mexico Open 2022
We've now had 8 winners in 17 events at 25/1 or shorter in the 2022 leg of the PGA TOUR season. I've hit 2 winners of the other 9 weeks, and took the week off when JJ Spaun won at 150/1 (of course). In other words...I've been boned this year by my self imposed longer than 25/1 handcuff requirement with this article. But...we press on this week now down 8 units and looking to lose another 5 units this week to add to the tally. Is it September yet?
In terms of what I'm targeting this week, I'm still very much looking for bombers with hot iron play. Sure, it helps if they've shown some form with the putter, but I don't care if they haven't. These greens aren't difficult, and the slow paspalum generally brings the field closer together in terms of putting ability. I also love the Opportunities Gained stat proprietary to Fantasy National as it indicates birdie making opportunities. With a winning score at -21.5 O/U...you better be scoring in bunches. I'm also tossing around the green play completely. If my guys are having to show off their impressive scrambling skills, then I'm screwed (sans lube) to begin with.
Clearly, we don't have course history to look at, but we could look a little at performance at Corales and Puerto Rico. After all of that, it just comes down to value and who we believe is ready to slam the door on maybe their first PGA TOUR win, if it's not a former Tour winner. This week, it could literally be anybody (just hopefully not +350 Jon Rahm...gag a maggot).
Bombs away fam! Only 4 of these 10 outrights have won on the PGA TOUR, but Daddy's feeling frisky! Most of these I talked up on the podcast, and you can tell my mind hasn't changed in terms of how I'm attacking this field. With weather not playing a factor, I felt confident to fire away now on these numbers.
Pat kind of talked me into Clark on the podcast, and I came around late this evening on Aaron Rai's chances given his solid iron play and run of good form. If any of you are up for tailing this on a weekly basis (bless your hearts), then I hope you watched my First Look & Live Reaction video on Monday where I called out Wise as a value at 40/1. I got him then, but he's not there now.
Speaking of that video, I also mentioned Cam Champ on that same stream at 70/1. Felt like that was worth a grab. Well...it's since been bet down to 45/1. I couldn't bring myself to put him on this card at 45/1 after getting him in real life on Monday at 70/1, but it's a good reminder of how these lines can move throughout the week and some lines are worth getting on early.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!