Outright Bets for The Memorial Tournament 2023
The Betting Approach for The Memorial Tournament 2023
Let the facial art commence! Betting outright bombs in today's climate is tough. But...we've got an elevated event at Muirfield Village for The Memorial Tournament, and there's value to be had this week on the PGA TOUR.
Similar to last week, we don't have much of a weather wave advantage situation going into the first 2 days at The Memorial. So, I'm ready to fire to get the best odds. Odds have already dropped on a number of key names we fired on early Monday when doing the 1st Look show with the DISCORD family.
Jack's place has given off vintage PGA Championship vibes since the renovation with more than 60-70% of the field finishing the tournament over par, and the cream rising to the top of the leaderboard. However, we did get a Billy Ho victory over Aaron Wise last year, so it's possible a mid range bomb can outlast the studs up top.
Like most tougher golf courses on the PGA TOUR, you're going to have to do everything well. Playing from the wide(ish) fairways into these brutally firm, fast, sloping bentgrass putting greens will be integral. It's hard to win from the rough at Muirfield. Plus, with the average GIR rate of 11 since the renovation, you better be good around the greens. We need the total package, and we need someone not afraid of the big, bad elevated event field.
Finally, I leaned into experience around Muirfield with most plays (not all of them). I'd like by horses to have at least a lap or two around Muirfield as it seems that correlates more so than the average TOUR stop.
More Intel on Muirfield Village
We're still learning what to expect from Muirfield Village after the renovations in 2020, but it's starting to take shape. If you'd like more intel on the course, check out Nate's Rundown article here on the TJ blog when you get a minute.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Memorial Tournament 2023
I'm now down 10 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
I'm down 10 units and trying to win between 30 and 36 units with a win. As you can see, I'm peppering the middle with just 2 bombs in the triple digit range. FanDuel was giving us some excellent value this morning in the 1st Look show with the DISCORD and most of these numbers have corrected to fall in line with other books. However, I still like these guys in the range they fall.
Hatton is, funny enough, the guy with the least experience at Muirfield, but it's just too hard to argue with his current form in big time spots. My favorite bunch is from Hideki to Lowry in the mid 40s and 50s. Plenty of Muirfield experience between the bunch, proven record on tough courses, and showing fantastic ball striking form coming in. I don't LOVE Sahith's off the tee game, but the fairways are somewhat generous and the kid's got the stones around the greens. Feels like the win is imminent. Despite my bias towards Si Woo, he's actually a great fit here with his total driving, iron play and around the green touch. Si Woo's performed well around here too with a T9 and T13 since the renovation.
Finally, the bombs...English had a shot last week at Colonial, and he may actually be fully back with the irons after the injury situation. He's a calm, cool, collected PGA TOUR winner with the attitude to win a tough event. Straka's similar in my mind to English...he can get super hot with the irons and he seems to wake up and eat on tougher tracks.
That's all I've got this Memorial Day Monday. Thank you to all of you who have served our country. We're appreciative of your sacrifices. Time to bend over our bookie for America!!!
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
