Mayakoba 2020 Betting Card

Last time out at the RSM, we nearly cashed the Kiz 45/1 ticket as he finished solo 2nd after losing in a playoff for a 5th time in his career. F'in Robert F'in Streb...If you can catch each way odds, it worked out for you, but damn us Americans got screwed. Oh well...I'm 10 units down on the season based off the pics in this article alone, but it's Long Shot SZN™ and Daddy ain't slowin down now!

***ADDED WEDNESDAY - I'm not seeing any real weather advantage for Thursday, so FRL's are a no go for me. I'd rather have a bunch of outright tickets for this "spin the wheel" (shout out AC) tournament where a bunch of different guys could win this. I hate to remove Harman and Kizzire off the ticket, because I do think both could have a good week. I just think the line value for the shorter numbers I took and the longer shots is just too good to pass up. I think the lines on Kizzire and Harman are accurate...just no real value compared to the other names. Harman's record here is a head scratcher and Kizzire's driving accuracy would be the only real concern on those two guys.

As of Tuesday, the golf course is looking to play a lot like last year...WET like my jump shot! It looks a little breezy on Thursday and Friday, but not crazy. I'll keep an eye out tomorrow and update the card if I want to tackle a tee time advantage for first round leaders, but for now I'll focus on outrights that hit fairways, show stellar recent form with their irons and make a caca ton of birdies.

It's tough to ignore the hot form Conners has been on of late with back to back T10s at Augusta and the RSM. He's possibly the best ball striker in this field and just needs a few more putts to drop. I love his win equity at 35/1. Niemann got his post COVID hangover tournament out of the way with the RSM and I suspect he could rip this place apart if he's on despite his poor record here.

Speaking of poor records here, enter Brian Harman (cockbite). It's rather puzzling to me how a guy like Harman has sucked here for years when you consider the type of players win Mayakoba. Harman should be a perfect fit! Since the restart, he's got 9 top 30s in those 17 events, and his ball striking has been fantastic tee to green. Todd's record here sucked tit prior to his win last year. Kizzire has a win and three other finishes in the 50s here. I believe in Mr. Cockbite this week.

Love the trending form former winner, Patton Kizzire, has rounded into. Plus, his flat stick can get red hot to run away with an event like this that turns into everyone hitting greens and being all about the putts dropping. I love Piercy's value considering his excellent ball striking and incredible track record at El Camaleon. Knox is a late add for me after diving into his form of late. His ball striking is seemingly back on track over the last 24 rounds and it remains all about the flatstick with the Scotsman. There's something about this place he loves though with three top 10s in his last four attempts.

I'm actually grateful for Denny's MC at the RSM as it's lowered his price across the board. But Denny's overall form since the restart has been rather solid with three top 10s. He hits it straight and he putts the piss out of it no matter where he goes. Ghim has been hotter than a ghost pepper lately and he's doing it with tremendous ball striking. He's got limited status and arrives motivated to elevate that status for January. Spaun and Bryan are my two bombs. Spaun for the pure ball striking and Bryan for the accuracy and putting combo. He's a poor man's Brian Harman. He's won a PGA TOUR event before, and he's still working off a major medical. He's got to take advantage of the starts he gets in order to earn full status back after injury.