Outright Bets for The WGC Dell Match Play 2023
The Betting Approach for The WGC Dell Match Play 2023
We had the leaderboard surrounded last week with Fleetwood, Clark & Hickok all up there, but ultimately Taylor Moore takes it down for Pat's card at 50/1. Hopefully you tailed him or you caught the 1st look show last week when he was 70/1!
We're gearing up for our final installment (maybe) of the WGC Dell Match Play from Austin Country Club, and I'm sad to see this format go. This is quite the unique event to handicap, and it's a fun challenge. The match play element adds a ton of intrigue, and although I didn't do it in this article, one should consider saving some units for some live fires once group play is complete.
I've got 2 outrights from 3 of the quadrants and 3 outrights from the Jon Rahm quadrant on the card, and I recommend you make sure you spread out your outrights as evenly as possible. I put some thought into the guys I felt like would be inspired to play 7 matches in 5 days, and who needs it most since I can't bet the favorites shorter than 25/1. I think this could be an event where a guy gets his 1st PGA TOUR win, or maybe his first BIG PGA TOUR win.
As mentioned on the podcasts, weird stuff will happen here so we've gotta embrace it and trust it. There are studs in every quadrant, but every year we see long shots make it to the final four. All I'm asking myself is, could I see this guy making it to the final four. If so, then I think we fire and let the randomness of match play take it from there.
More Intel on Austin CC
We're all quite familiar with Austin CC at this point, but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
I also did this course breakdown video in 2022 that's still quite relevant today for understanding what it takes at Austin CC.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The WGC Dell Match Play 2023
I'm now only up 7 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
I'm obviously forcing myself to lean into the volatility here with the 25/1 or longer restriction, but I still preferred to keep Hatton, Spieth and Hovland off the card (despite my affinity for them this week) so that I could have more outs. I'd say there's a slight lean to bombers on the card with Sungjae, Fowler, Hoge and Si Woo being average.
Loaded up 4 potential first time winners with Young, Theegala, Montgomery and Fox, but we can't argue that all of these guys appear ready to slam the door, even on the big stage.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!