Outright Bets for The Masters 2023
The Betting Approach for The Masters 2023
We've arrived in the backyard of the Tour Junkies as Augusta National Golf Club hosts one of the most anticipated Masters tournaments in history with the PGA vs LIV clash. I was at Augusta National on Saturday and Tuesday, so I got to see the course and a fair amount of players in person. I'm as excited as I've ever been for The Masters, and with units to blow after a great start to the season...I'm even more excited to sweat a big on late on Sunday.
Of course, "sweating a big one" is only in the cards if 1 of the big 3 don't spoil the party. I must say...the trends of winners at Augusta don't work in the favor of the aptly named, "Big Balls Betting Card" with a 25/1 or longer self imposed rule but oh well. Gun to my head and my life depends on it, I'd say Scheffler wins and becomes one of a few to defend as champion. If this were the "Small Balls Betting Card", I'd say Rahm at +950 is by far the best bet of the trio. Rahm's playing just as well as Scheffler in 2023, and his record at Augusta is solid. Plus, Scheffler and Rahm both seem to be have that "dawg in em" compared to the beta boy efforts of one Rory McllMonahan (that's a LIV / Rory co-commissioner joke).
I waited as long as possible to drop this card as I wanted the best outlook on the weather. The forecast really impacts the handicapping process at Augusta, and we'll cover that a lot in the DISCORD chat tonight at 830pmET.
More Intel on Augusta National Golf Club
We're all quite familiar with Augusta National at this point, but in the event you'd like a little more insight into the golf course(s), the key stats to consider, and how the event has turned out in the past -- then we can't stress strongly enough why being a Nut Hut member is important. We provide all the research each week to save you countless hours and help you make informed decisions.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Masters 2023
I'm now up 25 units on the 2022-2023 PGA TOUR season and I'm not counting the +850 Si Woo hit I so brilliantly called on Saturday night of the Amex (I'm going to keep reminding Pat of that one).
As mentioned, getting a winner at The Masters with a self imposed outright card restriction at 25/1 or longer can be harder than I'd like for my hometown event. However, with the caliber player in the mid range, it still feels nice to stare at a list of studs on the card, so we'll hold on to hope.
Tony Finau has been my favorite bet on the board since Saturday. I mentioned him as a lock for me in the Lisa Ann video as well as the Betting podcast. I still like him at 24/1 currently on FanDuel. If you want a comprehensive breakdown of why I love Finau so much, watch the Lisa Ann video...I'm sure it won't be the first time you've "watched a Lisa Ann video."
Max Homa winning The Masters would be a major trend buster, but he's been arguably the best iron player in the world over the last few months or even the last year. In addition, Max's short game is highly underrated, and we know he can be a closer when in contention. He's never done great at Augusta, and his major championship record isn't tremendous, but Max continues to show the world the player he's become/becoming. I think we can forget about the player that he was 2+ years ago.
Sungjae's had a pretty good run at Augusta in just 3 starts, and while he's not the longest in the field, his complete game translates here well. Add in the solid run of form and another year under his belt at Augusta National, and that makes for a juicy 45/1 bet. You could also refer to that same Lisa Ann video to here Pat plead his case for Sungjae if you're so inclined.
Past champion, Hideki Matsuyama, speaks for himself with his history at Augusta National. But Hideki's form ain't too shabby either with a 5th at The Players and 15th last week at Valero. With his ball striking and short game, Hideki's a an auto bet at 46/1 as long as he's seemingly healthy.
You're probably quite aware of Corey Conners' record at Augusta with top 10s each of the last 3 years. You're probably also aware that he just won the Valero again last week. Quite the merger of course history and recent form with CoCo. TJ HQ bet him on Friday at 80/1 after doing the research for this video. However, even though the 50/1 number feels like you missed it...the dude won and the number shortened. Makes sense.
Shane Lowry and Justin Rose are a couple major champions also possessing the merger of good course history and recent form. Shane's seemingly figured out Augusta the last 3 years with improved play after starting off terribly his first few years. Shane locked up a 3rd at Augusta last year and he's coming off strong finishes at Genesis and Honda. His all striking and short game have been as strong as ever, but it just comes down to that flat stick.
Justin Rose is more of a bomb FOMO old guy bet, but he's obviously been playing exceptionally well of late with his win at Pebble Beach. Throw in the fact that he's always been a bit of a gritty, tough weather player, and he's worth a shot at 66/1.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
