DraftKings Picks for The Honda Classic 2021

After an exciting final round at THE PLAYERS that saw Justin Thomas tame TPC Sawgrass, the PGA Tour heads to Palm Beach and Jack Nicklaus’ PGA National course for the 2021 Honda Classic. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.

What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.

It's been an emotional few months for Justin Thomas. An action on the course, the loss of his grandfather, and the recent accident of his good friend, Tiger Woods, has had JT noticeably and understandably shook. All of that was put to rest and the community once again hit the books hard this week as they threw up a 20+ on the third ranked golfer in the world and we got ‘em. We got 'em again!

Pete Dye’s masterpiece, TPC Sawgrass provided a great week of golf with ups and downs for all and an awesome drama-filled finale. We had a shot with Bryson DeChambeau and Paul Casey as well but both fell short. This week we turn to another legendary architect and the gem that is the Champion course at PGA National. One of the toughest courses on tour.

Unfortunately, due to the schedule packed 2021 season and the lineup of events we golf fans have been treated to the last few weeks, most of golf’s elite have decided to take a break for this week’s Honda Classic. The 2020 champion, Sungjae Im, is back to defend his title. Top-ranked Daniel Berger will join him along with the likes of last week’s runner-up, Lee Westwood, Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler, Sam Burns, Cameron Davis, and former world #1 amateurs, Joaquin Niemann and Doug Ghim. The field has been set at 144.

PGA National Course Breakdown

Playing at 1.016 strokes over par in 2019, the Jack Nicklaus designed Champion Course at PGA National was the second hardest course played on the PGA Tour. The players will face off against the infamous ‘Bear Trap’. A string of holes from 15-17 boasting two par 3s playing as the fourth and fifth toughest holes on the course.

The 7,100 yard par 70 features 67 bunkers and water in play on 15 holes. Players will face a typical Florida course with Celebration bermudagrass on the tees and fairways, TifSport bermuda overseeded with ryegrass in the rough, and TifEagle bermudagrass on the greens.

The winning score very rarely gets to double digits and with the wind forecasted for the week, expect a lot of bogeys. Looking at key stats this week I’ll start with bogey avoidance. Then move on to fairways gained, good drives gained, greens in regulation, and the most important stat every week, strokes gained approach. No shock but I will also include some of Fantasy National’s opps gained stat and breaking down the course a bit more; I’ll be looking at 400-450 par 4s (6), 500-550 par 5s (2), and 175-200 par 3s (3). Scrambling is a lot more difficult here than the tour average and average driving distance is a lot lower as well.

The Picks & Fades

Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.

$9k+:

DB: Play - Adam Scott | Fade - Daniel Berger

Pat: Play - Daniel Berger | Fade - Adam Scott

AC: Play - Joaquin Niemann, Shane Lowry, Cameron Tringale | Fade - Daniel Berger

At first look I wanted to fade everyone up here above 10k but honestly Niemann’s irons just have so much potential and add a field like this… well I think it’s too hard to pass up. This pick will come with an asterisk because if his ownership gets too high I’ll have to hop off. I do have an outright to cover my ass though. Lowry isn’t really a stats based pick but more of a conditions based pick. The wind does look intense and Lowry is one of the best when the breeze blows. The T8 last week at THE PLAYERS is also encouraging. I’ve been riding Tringale for a while and don’t see a reason to hop off. His stats jump off of the page and has good numbers in the wind. Berger is obviously a tough fade but his ownership is insane and is a legit WD possibility with a rib injury we hope to find more about before lock.

$8k:

DB: Play - Brendan Steele | Fade - Keegan Bradley

Pat: Play - Rickie Fowler | Fade - Wyndham Clark

AC: Play - Doug Ghim, Brendan Steele, Matt Wallace | Fade - Rickie Fowler

Ghim has been a gamer lately and he’s feeling it. I’m not worried about his final round fade the last couple of goes. He’s young, it’s going to happen. But he bounced back and think he will do it again this week. I like Steele’s game for this course. He has been striking it well, has great course history with a T5 last year, and rates fourth in my model. Wallace is coming in under the radar and for a guy just sitting outside the top 50 in the world ranking, he can turn it on. I hope I’m wrong about Fowler this week but his price is way too high for the potential.

$7k:

DB: Play - Kevin Streelman | Fade - Alex Noren

Pat: Play - JT Poston | Fade - Luke List

AC: Play - Kevin Streelman, James Hahn, Rory Sabbatini | Fade - Rafa Cabrera Bello

Streelman rated out well for me last week in the 6ks but couldn’t hold on during the last few holes and a couple drop shots left him on the wrong side of the cut. No shock he still rates out well so I’ll bite again. His Jack track stats and wind play is intriguing as well. I love me some James Hahn and my radar is pinging. Hahn loves some Jack tracks and hasn’t played PGA National in seven years which may help lower the intimidation. The Sabbatini play raise some eyebrows but the big swinging Slovak has great wind numbers recently, has a top 20 here, and loves Jack tracks. RCB is pretty much always a fade for me. His numbers are almost DFL in most stats in my model.

$6k:

DB: Play - Jim Furyk, John Huh, Bo Hoag

Pat: Play - Jim Furyk, John Huh, Bo Hoag

AC: Play - Cameron Percy, Wesley Bryan, Bo Hoag

Percy ranks sixth in my model and is first in GIR and Good Drives gained. I like both of those stats along with Percy’s recent play in Puerto Rico. Bryan is a sneaky sleeper pick for me. He is currently on a medical extension and needs to pick his starts wisley. He chose to enter this event and has a T4. Worth a shot. Hoag has a special place for me with his play at the WMPO. He strikes it well and is first in scrambling in 2021.

THE INS & OUTS

OUT: Doc Redman (Covid), Gary Woodland (Covid), Scott Piercy (Covid), Sam Burns, Brian Harman, Kyle Stanley, Danny Willett

IN: Kiradech Barnrat, Sebastian Cappelen, DJ Trahan, Joseph Bramlett, JJ Spaun, Brunson Burgoon, Vincent Whaley

Monday Qs

63 (-9)

Marcelo Rozo (1 eagle, 9 birdies, 1 double bogey)

65 (-7)

Erik Compton (8 birdies, 1 bogey)

Zach Zaback (9 birdies, 1 double bogey)

66 (-6; via 2-for-1 playoff)

Stephen Stallings, Jr. (7 birdies, 1 bogey)

Field of 144

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