DraftKings Pivot Plays for The Honda Classic 2021
We're going to look at 2 extremely popular names across DFS contests and why you could justify staying away. More importantly, I'm going to tell you about 2 other players with as much upside at significantly less projected ownership. Ownership leverage and equal or greater upside from the players we're pivoting away from is the name of the game every week for the Pivot Point article.
Keegan Bradley (15%) / Ian Poulter (7%)
Keegan Bradley $8,400 15% - The T2G specialist rolls into The Honda in great form with a 29th place finish at the players and a 10th place finish at API. Keegan managed to gain strokes putting in both events and will look to keep it rolling again this week. Keegan will always show up at the top of every ball striking stat category, and when his putter gets hot, he can often be found near the top of the leaderboard. Keegan’s ball striking will be key this week at PGA National with the forecasted wind looking to make play super challenging.
Ian Poulter $8,100 7% - Poulter is not going to jump off the stat page at you and that is likely the reason for his low ownership. He is coming off a MC at The Players after a dreadful 77 in the first round. I always try to target Poulter in tough playing conditions on tough tracks and PGA National may be the toughest test of the year. In the last 50 rounds, Poulter is 13th in this field in total strokes gained in difficult scoring conditions. Despite his MC last week, he has had some good finishes in his last 6 months with a 26th at API, 25th at The Masters, and a 5th at CJ cup.
Why Pivot? While we can always count on Keegan finding fairways and greens, rarely do we see him get “hot” with his putter. He hasn’t gained strokes putting in back to back events since the middle of 2019 and hasn’t gained in three straight since before the belly putter ban at the start of 2016. Are you going to hope Keegan makes history this week? In the last 12 rounds at PGA National, Keegan has lost over 21 strokes putting…..that is an average of -1.7 strokes PER ROUND. Scrambling will be important this week and there will be a lot of testy putts for par, and I don’t think Keegan is up for the challenge. I will be eating some chalk at the top of the board this week and will need to find some leverage with the rest of my lineup and I will do that with Poults. Poulters experience at PGA National and grinder type playing style will be the difference here. He is also on the bubble for next week's match play event and has to have a good week!
Jim Furyk (15%) / Cameron Percy (7%)
Jim Furyk $6900 15% - Furyk is getting a lot of attention this week as most lineups will be dipping down to grab at least one player from the $6K range. Furyk has had some solid finishes in his last two tour starts at Genesis(26th) and AT&T(21st) and he has some decent course history at PGA National with a 9th place finish in 2019. Furyk hits tons of fairways and greens and is a solid play in windy conditions.
Cameron Percy $6900 7% - Cameron Percy is coming off a 29th place finish at The Players against the strongest field The PGA Tour will see all year. Similar to Furyk, Percy hits a lot of fairways and greens. The Par 3s at PGA National will be tough this week and Percy is number one in the field on par 3 scoring in his last 24 rounds. He hasn’t necessarily played well on tough tracks or in windy conditions in the past but he is currently in the best form of his career and looking to continue his run at The Honda this week.
Why Pivot?: Both of these players are very similar in hitting fairways and greens in regulation. In the last 24 rounds, Furyk is 1st and 3rd and Percy is 13th and 2nd respectively against the field. There is one distinct advantage Percy currently has over Furyk and that is making birdies. While the overall scoring will be lower this week than most, these players will still have to make birdies. In the last 24 rounds, Cameron Percy is 19th in the field in Birdie or Better percentage and 13th in DK scoring. Meanwhile, Furyk is 113th in Birdie or Better percentage and 84th in DK scoring. Furyk may be a safe play and a solid cut maker to fill out your lineup but I don’t think he will make enough birdies and score enough DK points this week to make up for his 15% ownership. Let’s go, Cam!
Written by: Tim Gaymon (THG803)