Betting Long Shots for The Honda Classic 2021
The Betting Approach for The Honda Classic 2021
Well, the Honda Classic is playing the role of shit in a shit sandwich of PGA TOUR events as the weak field is victim to The Players being last week, the WGC next week and the Masters looming. We've got 144 man field this week at PGA National and a recipe for #LongShotSZN to rise from the ashes.
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how PGA National will play, then check out our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC). We've also got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
PGA National has been one of the top 5 toughest courses on the PGA TOUR over the last 3 seasons and that's with a stronger field. You need to be prepared for carnage here at Jack's redesigned beauty in Palm Beach Gardens, Fl. With Sungjae Im being a favorite along with Daniel Berger, who by the way WD'd from the Wednesday Pro Am due to his lingering rib injury...this is setting up to be one of those years where someone outside of 25/1 takes home the trophy.
Keith Mitchell, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley and Michael Thompson have all won here in the last 8 years at 300/1 or longer.
The wind is always the deciding factor on this coastal course, and it's looking to take center stage this week with sustained winds all week from 10-13mph and some days seeing gusts in the 20s. The winning score among sportsbooks is projected at -7.5. This is about guys that can control their ball, hit fairways, hit GIRs, scramble, grind (not in the clubbin kind of way), and stay patient.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks strictly betting the long shots (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Pay Attention!
Every week, I'll publish this with Outright bets that I'm watching closely on Tuesday. Then, late on Wednesday afternoons, I'll finalize the Outrights and First Round Leader selections for the $50 card. You can read up on Tuesday to get a sense for who I'm eyeballing, and then Wednesday to see who didn't quite make the cut for me when it came time to finalize the card.
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Long shot picks for THE PLAYERS Championship 2021
We had Fitz, Casey, and Conners all on the card and finished in the Top 10 at The Players as JT outran the field. But, if you watched/listened to both podcasts, you watched "TJ After Dark" presented by DraftKings, or you were in the Nut Hut...you know me and Pat both thought 20/1 was an auto bet number on Justin Thomas. A ton of you jumped on it and it was good to see all the tweets and messages. But...this is the BIG BALLS betting card so nobody shorter than 25/1 makes it here.
Since the new 2020-2021 season started in September, we've hit 6 outright winners all over 25/1 and 1 first round leader at 100/1 documented in this article or on Pat's "Not That Anyone Really Cares" betting card. This article, alone, is now up 2 units since September. It ain't for betting favorites and it ain't for small balled bettors.
The sweet swingin, portly Irishman leads off the card given his 5 minute drive home from PGA National, his affinity for windy conditions and flash of recent form. The defending Open Champion has some win equity and I love to see the backdoor T8 last week at The Players.
Kirk and Steele have been mainstays over the last few weeks in my DFS lineups and betting card as both PGA TOUR winners have been in solid ball striking form coupled with value on the sportsbooks. Steele's record here is fantastic over the last 5 years with two T14s, a T11 and T4 in 2020.
The trio of Hadwin, Wallace and Clark at 66/1 provide a mixed bag of two of the best putters on the PGA TOUR in Clark and Hadwin alongside a tough course lovin ball striker in Matt Wallace. All 3 have at least one decent finish around PGA National and flashing form coming in this week.
Matt Jones and JT Poston are solid options in the 70/1 range, and I especially like how JT played last week with a T22 finish. He's one of the most accurate drivers of the ball and one of the best bermuda putters on the PGA TOUR. That's a recipe for success at a course with a ton of wind and water where par is your friend. Jones on the other hand is a ball striking, wind loving Aussie with a hot putter right now and plenty of experience around PGA National.
I love the value Patton Kizzire gives us at 90/1 given he's a 2x winner on the PGA TOUR and putts the shit out of it. He doesn't have a great record here, but he's confident at the moment. If he can find a few more fairways than usual this week, he could find himself in contention on Sunday.
Rounding out the Betting card with an AARP card carrying member in Jim Furyk, gives me goosebumps I'm so excited! I love Jim this week in all formats. He's picking his spots on the PGA TOUR and it's no surprise he's chosen The Honda Classic given his record here. Furyk boasts three top 10s here in seven attempts. Granted he hasn't won a PGA TOUR event since 2015, but he was runner up at The Players in 2019 to Rory. His form is solid right now and this weak field, blustery conditions, and difficult scoring likely means he won't have to do anything flashy to run someone down on Sunday.
Outright Winner
Lowry 28/1 DraftKings $9
Kirk 45/1 DraftKings $6
Steele 45/1 DraftKings $7
Hadwin 66/1 DraftKings $4
Wallace 66/1 DraftKings $5
Clark 66/1 DraftKings $4
Jones 70/1 PointsBet $4
Poston 70/1 DraftKings $4
Kizzire 90/1 PointsBet $4
Furyk 125/1 PointsBet $3