Betting Outrights for The Honda Classic 2022
The Betting Approach for The Honda Classic 2022
The PGA TOUR heads to Florida as PGA National hosts the Honda Classic, and it seems ripe for a long shot outright winner this week given the mediocre field. We've had quite the "great success" (Borat voice) betting the Honda as we both hit Matt Jones here last year at 150/1 and I hit Keith Mitchell in 2019 at 150/1. Let's break it down!
The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -9.5. PGA National is one of the toughest courses on the PGA TOUR schedule year in and year out. I documented a number of key stats and interesting trends in this week's "Heavy Petting" email that hits your inbox every Tuesday. The difficulty is due to wind, firm conditions and water hazards being actually in play on around 15 holes.
PGA National has the 3rd lowest GIR% of any course on tour, but it's not a hard course in terms of fairways hit. The water really comes into play on approach shots. Having your irons dialed and in form will go a long way this week. Hitting fairways, saving par when you miss a green and putting on grainy, Florida greens won't hurt either.
More Intel on PGA National
We've got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Honda Classic 2022
Nine outright picks to win the Honda Classic on the card this week with a third of those being in the triple digit range. I just really love that 50/1 up to 70/1 range this week.
I'm up 22 units on the season strictly betting long shot outrights on the PGA TOUR through 17 events. I'm shooting to win 30-40 units on this card as I take the mid range to pound town.
Sure, I like Sungjae, Louie & Niemann in DFS, but with the variance of this event, I wouldn't bet anyone shorter than 25/1 whether it was a rule for this article or not.
Glover and Vegas have some of the best history at PGA National in the field. Not that I care all that much this week as I care much more about form. But they check that box too, especially with their recent iron play.
I don't have a single player on this card coming in with struggling approach play. That's the number one angle for me. I'll take my chances with a gaggle of ball strikers that suck on the greens. We'll just be praying for a hot putter. And by "hot", I mean like...gain or lose 0 strokes. Just be average...like Pat. Just don't suck drastically on the greens and we'll have a chance boys!
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!