Outright Bets for The Genesis Scottish Open 2023
The Betting Approach for The Genesis Scottish Open 2023
Welp. Another week...another losing card with the top of the leaderboard peppered with hope. Shout out to Pat for nailing Straka at 60/1 and being up nearly 80 units on the season! He's hot right now folks.
The PGA TOUR and DP WORLD TOUR meet up in Scotland this week for the Genesis Scottish Open from The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. The weather wave advantage in 2022 was over 2 shots for the first two rounds, so for that reason, I'm waiting for the last possible moment to fire on these outrights. These next 2 weeks could be ideal for live firing once action gets going, so it would be prudent to save some units.
However, this is not the Prudent Betting Card...so we slangin!
With less wind projected, plus rain softening conditions, Vegas has the O/U at -13.5 for the winning score. That's a far cry from the -7 we saw last year. I could certainly see it getting better than -7 due to conditions, but I bet it falls somewhere between -11 and -13. The variance is all around with the weather, Scottish links conditions, travel factors for some, the DPWT contingent, etc.
I'm looking for length, guys that can grind, good short game, and good lag putting. I think the distance factor translates here regardless of conditions and even more so with soft conditions. I'd imagine the GIR% goes up this year from the 59% in 2022 with better conditions, but that still means short game plays a role. 3 putt avoidance is certainly a stat I'm eye-balling with the large greens and increased GIR %.
I certainly want my guys to have ample links experience either here, the Alfred Dunhill Links, past Open Championships, etc. I'm staying away from those coming over from the JDC with limited experience here or with links golf in general.
More Intel on the Renaissance Club
We discussed the course a good bit on the shows this week, and I've given ample course/trend intel in our DISCORD. However, if you'd like a breakdown of the course, key stats and trends, then check out this write up from our very own, Nate Moore.
Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units and the 2021-2022 season up 26 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Genesis Scottish Open 2023
Poston, Glover and Schenk all had shots for me last week...but to no avail. This is the biggest cold streak since I started this article 3 seasons ago. We've never finished in the negative. At this point, I'll need 2 wins in the next 5 weeks to finish in the positive. I'm down 25 units on the PGA TOUR season. F me to tears.
Sure. There's 11 names on the card. I get it. But...screw you! This is my betting card and I've done it with big balls for 4 seasons now! 10 units, 41 units, and 26 units...that's how I've finished the last 3 years doing it this way...so suck it! I'm spending 5 units to win 30 in order to get back to even.
I debated Spieth over Fitz, but the H2H books and bettors really like Fitz over Jordan. The Fitz T6 here after being on the wrong side of the 2 shot weather draw is solid.
Wyndham Clark with the T16 here in 2022 and playing lights out at a large number. He's confident and has all the tools required.
Justin Rose is 9th in my model. Sepp was 13th last week, and I ignored it. His links record speaks for itself.
Adam Scott's links record is also sneaky solid. He needs some FedEx points to get in that coveted top 70. He hits it far, and his short game has been quite strong lately. The H2H books and bettors like him as well.
I just love Ryan Fox on links(ish) courses. He's played well in tough events in strong fields and the number feels too large for the Kiwi. He grinded through the tough wave in 2022 to finish T47.
Alex Smalley leading the field at the JDC in iron play, and finishing T10 here in 2022 is too juicy to pass up at 90/1. He's probably a much better player than many DPWT guys priced shorter than he is.
Aaron Rai just feels due to contend given his play of late. He hits fairways, his iron play has really been poppin lately, his record here and his putting all too compelling at 90/1.
Gary Woodland's ball striking has been fantastic, and as always...we're just waiting on the putter. Would you believe he actually gained strokes putting here last year on his way to a T30 finish despite losing strokes on approach. The slower greens may be just what he needs.
The Scottish son, Bobby MacIntyre is playing too well to avoid at 100/1. He MC'd here by 2 shots and was on the wrong side of the draw. At 100/1, I'll play it for the story at minimum.
Cam Davis has very little links record, but we know he excels on challenging courses and in the wind. He's been boom or bust, but this feels like a sneaky spot for Cam to have a spike week. He checks all the boxes in the key proximity buckets and hits it plenty far. The short game is solid. He just needs an average week with the putter.
I just love Jordan Smith. The Englishman has a wonderful links record, and he's played well numerous times in mixed PGA / DPWT events and majors. He finished T24 here last year from the wrong side of the draw. He landed a T20 at the USO. 150/1 is a value.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
