Outright Bets for The Genesis Invitational 2024
The Betting Approach for The Genesis Invitational 2024
The PGA TOUR and Tiger Woods host The Genesis Invitational 2024 from Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles, California this week as 70 players look to land a $4 million dollar payday. The format is...unique, as Tiger can't stand not having a cut. Top 50 and those within 10 shots of the lead will play the weekend. I'd find it quite hilarious if just, I don't know, Cam Young missed the cut and had to leave the island because 69 other guys were within 10 shots.
Riviera CC demands all around game, but in recent years, I'd argue it's best suited for longer hitters. Long hitters with solid mid to long iron play and a greasy short game will be ideal with the winning score unlikely to reach the -18 point.
The weather looks pretty mild all week, but there is some chance Sunday gets interesting. Good news for the PGA TOUR is that having less than 80 guys means you can be flexible. It will be cool and calm most days with Riv likely to run it's usual firm and fast self.
And with that, I was ready to fire early on some outrights. A few of these guys were pounded by the Discord during our Monday morning 1st Look Show and the numbers have steamed a good bit. Always nice to start Thursday with some closing line value in my opinion.
More Intel on Riviera Country Club
We've got plenty of caddie friends on site this week to help us understand how this golf course is playing. I'll also be paying close attention to the player quotes throughout the week and dropping them in the Nut Hut Discord.
I'm also back to doing my weekly course breakdown videos that drop on Sunday afternoons. I'll be discussing course insights, key stats, and sharing my screen for an early look at the Bet The Number model. Check out this week's video if you'd like more on Riviera Country Club.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Research, #Cheat-Sheets, or #Caddie-Info channels this week...you're missing a TON of information.
The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 14/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of having a big triple-digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre-tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting on these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks, the 2020-2021 season up 41 units, the 2021-2022 season up 26 units and the 2022-2023 season down 10 units strictly betting the long shot outrights (nothing shorter than 25/1).
So for the last 4 PGA TOUR seasons, this article is up 67 units. However, the landscape of the PGA TOUR has changed, and the winners have been shorter over the last 2 years. For that reason, I've decided to start the 2024 season at a 20/1 minimum instead of 25/1.
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Genesis Invitational 2024
As you can see, the card is tighter and shorter than usual. I am buying into the idea that we finally don't get a winner outside 100/1 in this 70 man signature event on a course that typically rewards the very best ball strikers (not a putting contest).
JT, Burns, Scott & Kitayama were all discussed in the 1st Look Show on Monday in the Discord. I told everyone to hit those right away, and I'm glad we did as the #'s steamed. However, I still like all of them except for Scott. I just don't love Adam Scott shorter than maybe 35/1 given he hasn't actually closed the door on anything since this event 4 years ago.
I'm also converting the card to units instead of dollars just because I think it's actually easier now that most of the betting public has had a few years to understand that a "unit" is not just what's behind your zipper.
I'm spending 5.9 units to win between 35 units with a hit. We're down 23 on the PGA TOUR season (up 33 on the LIV Golf season), but most everyone is down big for the year. WIth the exception of Nick Taylor at 150/1, I'm just not sure I've seen anyone hit a winner all season. If we're going down...let's all go down together.
Alright, off to help write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!
