Betting Outrights for The Genesis Invitational 2022
The Betting Approach for The Genesis Invitational 2022
To say I'm extremely pumped to fire some outright bets for this week's Genesis Invitational from Riviera would be a massive understatement. The field this week is stacked with talent. The Genesis has become one of the more premier events of the PGA TOUR season with one of the strongest fields all season.
The sportsbooks have the O/U winning score line set at -12.5. The weather looks pretty perfect and we're hearing that conditions are fairly firm and fast. Historically, this event has been won by the cream of the crop in the short to mid range in terms of outright numbers. Given the way it seems Tiger Woods wants to set this tournament, I see this week resembling more of a major championship than a standard PGA TOUR event in terms of the leaderboard.
More Intel on Riviera CC
We've got a new secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The Genesis Invitational 2022
I've got a slightly tighter outright betting card for the Genesis this week given the strength of field and the dominance of the mid to short range winners here lately. However, I still think there's tremendous value and win equity in the 80/1 range specifically and a couple beyond that.
We're up 27 units on the season strictly betting long shot outrights on the PGA TOUR through 16 events. I'm shooting to win 40 units on this card with one stud up top and then pounding the middle.
It's quite the ask to pick a winner at an event as stacked as this one. But, she ain't the Big Balls Betting Card for nothin! We're rolling with Willy Z up top and faded the rest of the schmucks at 35/1 or shorter!
Will Zalatoris has caught his share of steam this week having opened at around 35/1 then by show time on Monday night was already down to 30/1. I saw him as low as 28/1 this morning, but FanDuel is coming through with the ol' 32/1! I'm buying the chalk here. Willy has just been too good so far this year, and we'd all hate to miss the victory here in his home state of California before the PGA TOUR heads to Florida.
I see the rest of these plays as just solid value due to the strength of field up top, but all are previous PGA TOUR winners with the exception of Tringale and Pieters. Pieters and List have won in the last month or so. This whole crew is flashing form and has some decent performances in the past at RIV.
If you missed my Luke List defense on the pod...well let me just tell you...it was f'ing amazing! Very convincing.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!