Outright Bets for The John Deere Classic 2022
The Betting Approach for The John Deere Classic 2022
It's John Deere Classicly the shittiest tournament on the PGA TOUR year in and year out week as the boys head to TPC Deere Run! Can you feel the excitement?! Hell yea you can! Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin are your "favorites" to win...Webb won over 2 years ago and Hadwin hasn't won since Trump's 1st year in office! But here we are.
The weather looks a little interesting as wind is projected to be steady with gusts in the 20s on Thursday as of now. Then, the rain is coming in to soften things up for this dart throwing contest. The O/U winning score projected right now by the books is -20.5. The winning score has reached -20 or better in 7 of the last 11 years. This is a high variance event that typically turns into a "putting contest." Past champs range in skill set and incoming form. For that reason...we're going BALLS TO THE WALL on the card!
More Intel on TPC Deere Run
If you're looking for a more in depth look at how TPC Deere Run will play, then check out the our Weekly Preview write up by Nut Hut Butler, Anthony Charter (aka AC).
We've also got a secret weapon every week in the Nut Hut as we've added John Rathouz (aka CaddieHouse), 10+ year PGA TOUR Caddie. John will be in the Nut Hut every week sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.
If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing out on a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.
This is NOT Your Mama's Betting Article
I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Life is too short to bet favorites! Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes!
Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. I finished the 2019-2020 PGA Tour season up 10 units over 30 weeks & the 2020-2021 season up 41 units strictly betting the long shot outrights and first round leaders (nothing shorter than 25/1).
Long Shot Outright Bets for The John Deere Classic 2022
And now we're 11 units in the red after The Travelers. Good news though...Pat his Xander at 18/1 on his card for his 8th outright of the season! Props to Pat, ya'll! If you've not been catching the Monday morning 1st look betting odds show I'm doing each week...you're missing out on some good ol' fashioned value (with some entertainment sprinkled in). We've been running through the board and determining which names we know we want and getting them at the best numbers. If weather doesn't appear to be a factor most weeks...then early Monday is a great time to fire on a few early values before they get shorter. This is the case with a number of guys I've targeted this week.
Recent winners here have been at 50/1, 90/1 and even 300/1 over the last 4 years, so I'm pounding the middle and the super bombs! Therefore, the card is littered with more names than usual, but that's what I gotta do on the BBBC. If there was ever a week to completely fade the shorter numbers at 30/1 or shorter, then it's this week for the Deere.
10 names on the card this week with such a high variance event this week for the John Deere as Patrick Mother F'in Rodgers headlines alongside Adam Long. Words I never thought I'd type in 2022...Like I said, I'm pounding the middle and then going with total nuclear bombs!
I've even included Jonas F'in Blixt...a guy who I totally anticipate losing money on in all forms, but 500/1 with his hot putter in a putting contest is the stuff of legend if that bet hits.
I'm spending 5 units to win at least 35 or so across most of these numbers. Hit me up in the Nut Hut DISCORD server or on Twitter/Instagram if you have any questions about these guys.
Alright, off to write the Chalk Bomb! Have a great week and #BendOverYourBookie!