DraftKings Picks for the Byron Nelson 2021
Arguably the best golfer in the last decade, Rory McIlroy, returned to the top of his game last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Just in time to kill his price for the PGA Championship next week. Before that though, we have one last tune-up and looking at the field, some star players are in need of some reps.
The 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson will move to a new course this week as TPC Craig Ranch hosts its first PGA Tour event. Let’s get you set to see some green screens on DraftKings this weekend.
What's up golf addicts! AC here, checking in week to week to provide a quick preview of the upcoming PGA Tour event. I’ll give you the lowdown on the course, the players, some key stats, and our favorite DraftKings picks for the week.
We are mostly about Longshot SZN here but seeing Rory win last week was a good feeling. Few have been as open, honest, and good for the game as Rory has been in his career. Unfortunately, we did have a lot of Abraham Ancer (2nd), Viktor Hovland (T3), Luke List and Matt Wallace (T6) but such is golf.
The last few years of the Byron Nelson were a bit lackluster due to a combo of schedule placement and what seems to be some issues with the course location and some bad weather. Nevertheless, Trinity Forest has been eliminated and TPC Craig Ranch signs a new deal. We would have got three of the top four golfers in the world here but once again world #1 Dustin Johnson has WD pre tourney citing some knee pain.
Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau are in attendance though with the likes of Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger, Sam Burns fresh off his first win, and 2021 Masters champion, Hideki Matsuyama returning stateside.
Though this will be the PGA Tour’s first stop at TPC Craig Ranch, it did play host to the Korn Ferry Tour’s (KFT) Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012. Leishman (T7) was most notably on the 2008 leaderboard while James Hahn (T2), Luke List and Ben Martin (T13), and Brice Garnett and Cameron Percy (T19) came up short in 2012.
TPC Craig Ranch Course Breakdown
It's always fun setting up for a brand new course on tour. TPC Craig Ranch located just northeast of Dallas, Texas in McKinney is part of the Tournament Players Club operated by the PGA Tour. Designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004, Craig Ranch is the brainchild of local real estate developer David Craig. Once again we get another bomber track with a 7,400+ yard par 72.
TPC Craig Ranch features Bentgrass greens and Zoysiagrass fairways. Bermudagrass can be found in the rough, grown to 2.5”. The fairways and greens are above average in size using a creek that runs through 13 of the holes, mostly in play in seven of them, as a main defense along with 83 bunkers.
Driving distance and strokes gained off the tee should play a big part this week with not much trouble to be found from the tee box and a couple drivable par 4s. Approach and opps gained are always key and judging from the scores of the two KFT Tour Championships played here, birdies will be made. There are three 200+ yard par 3s, about a third of the holes played all week will be 450-500 yard par 4s, and of course some reachable par 5s will make par 5 scoring important.
Weather looks to be a factor once again with buckets of rain being dumped over the course the last few days and some wind in the forecast. There was a huge wave advantage last week and it looks like the PM/AM wave will be favored once again. Make sure to take a closer look Wednesday night.
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The Picks & Fades
Each week I will give you my plays and a fade from each DraftKings salary range.
$9k+:
DB: Play - Bryson DeChambeau | Fade - Sam Burns
Pat: Play - Jon Rahm | Fade - Sergio Garcia
AC: Play - Bryson DeChambeau, Will Zalatoris, Matthew Fitzpatrick | Fade - Hideki Matsuyama
The fact Bryson barely made the cut last week and mistakenly left the state to go home Friday afternoon before returning early Saturday morning when realizing the mistake and proceeding to fire back to back 68s to squeak out a T9 gives me a lot of confidence in him this week.
Another long course that requires a putter. That’s Bryson. With some experience at the course and the way he has been striping it lately, I’ll take a bounce back week from Willy Z. The birdie numbers and par 5 scoring are super good and pair that with his efforts at Augusta on Bentgrass I think this could be the week. I have been off and on Fitz lately. If his putter stays hot, he should easily contend for a top spot this week. The Good Drives and par 4 scoring are top notch. I originally had Spieth as one of my plays but with the news of his recent battle with Covid I’m just going to remove his name completely.
The fade is going to be Deki. He confirmed he still basically has a Masters hangover and hasn’t really picked up the clubs. The price is just too high for that kind of hope.
$8k:
DB: Play - Cameron Champ | Fade - Everyone but Si Woo
Pat: Play - Si Woo Kim | Fade - Jason Day
AC: Play - Jason Day, Luke List | Fade - Harris English
Anyone that knows me immediately will raise an eyebrow when they see Jason Day’s name here but the fact is, this range sucks. I’ll gamble on Day who for the first time in forever has fallen out of the top 60 OWGR and needs some good numbers to secure a spot in the US Open. Day’s putter has been cold but that was always his bread and butter. As long as we fade a WD, I think Day is in play. As for List, well I’ve always been a homer for List and I’ve been generally lucky to take him on the right weeks. The way he has been playing I can’t jump off now even though I think his price is a bit steep. That should keep some of the ownership off though.
I’m with the boys mostly for fading this whole range. It’s ugly. I’ll throw Harris English out as the guy I think will do the worst in this range. At least he’s got his looks.
$7k:
DB: Play - Patton Kizzire | Fade - Brandt Snedeker
Pat: Play - Vincent Whaley | Fade - Carlos Ortiz
AC: Play - Peter Uihlein, Doug Ghim, Sepp Straka | Fade - Charles Howell III
Uihlein has three made cuts in a row with a win on the KFT a few weeks back. His Strokes Gained Texas numbers are solid and should be able to put the short game to work this week. Ghim played with Scheffler for the Longhorns. He's 7th in my model for 2021. Stellar proximity numbers from 125-200 and is 2nd in the field in long par 4 scoring.
Strakalicious has made six cuts in a row and is back on his best putting surface. Love being able to get back on the big Austrian. I think with CH3’s birdie, proximity, and driving issues so far this year he is an easy fade for the top of the k range.
$6k:
DB: Play - KH Lee, Anirban Lahiri, Joseph Bramlett
Pat: Play - KH Lee, Hank Lebioda,
AC: Play - Sung Kang, Michael Gligic, Wes Roach
Kang is a member of the course, has a great Texas track record and said that he and his coach finally found what was hurting his game. I need one fellow Canadian in the write up so enter Michael Gligic. Sloan gets a nod here as well but Gligic has made three cuts in a row and announced his first born child last week. Roach has some good opps gained, birdie %, good drives and par 5 scoring numbers so sign me up this week.
THE INS & OUTS
OUT:
Dustin Johnson, Brandon Hagy, Robert Streb
IN:
Greg Chalmers, Ricky Barnes, Jonathan Byrd
Monday Qs:
64 (-8)
MJ Daffue (3 eagle-3s, 3 birdies, 1 bogey)
66 (-6)
John Lyras (8 birdies, 2 bogeys)
67 (-5; via 7-for-2 playoff)
Tom Lovelady (bogey-free; 5 birdies)
Dylan Meyer (6 birdies, 1 bogey)
- Field is set at 156