Outright Bets for The AT&T Byron Nelson 2023

I am so pissed at my brain for not backing Wyndham Clark last week after riding his jock the entire year. Lesson learned. We discussed on the podcast this week what a week like that can teach you as a bettor. Check it out.

But this week we find ourselves at TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson as the PGA TOUR's mule boys attempt to punch a ticket to the PGA Championship next week at Oak Hill. The WD's are coming in hot leaving Scheffler, Hatton, T. Kim, Hideki and Jason Day at the top of the betting board. Yuck!

TPC Craig Ranch has delivered 2 absolute birdie bonanzas in it's first 2 years hosting with KH Lee taking home both titles to the tune of -51 combined. With some wind and rain in the forecast this week, it's shaping up to play similar to the inaugural year in 2021.

The already soft (no rollout) zoysia fairways will play even wider with rain softening things up, but also will give an even greater advantage to the bombers. Plus, with a number of 200 yard plus approach shots, the only way a short hitter contends here will be with record setting days on the greens.

I'm targeting longer than average players that hit their long irons well, and have shown the ability to make an ass ton of birdies. The cut line is likely to reach -5, so we can't have any slow starters or late bloomers. Finally, putting on these large...benign...boring bentgrass greens matters more than most weeks. I want good putters on the card, but I'm willing to tolerate slightly below average putters IF they're way above average in the ball striking category.

More Intel on TPC Craig Ranch

TPC Craig Ranch hasn't been that hard to figure out, but if you'd like a little more insight, check out The Rundown by our friend Nate Moore.

Plus, we've got our 10+ year PGA TOUR caddie contributing every week in the Nut Hut , in John Rathouz. John will be in the Nut Hut weekly sharing insights on the courses, how they're playing and what he's hearing from ground zero that week.

If you're in the Nut Hut and you've not scrolled the #Caddie-Info channel this week...you're missing a TON of information. The chat tonight will cover everything from strategy in GPPs, cash games, betting, weather and tee time wave advantages, and of course picks & fades. If you'd like more detail on the weather and our thoughts, then check the Nut Hut and sign up for the Chalk Bomb email going out here in a few hours.